In other words, Nigeria, with a median age <20 years, is expected to have a much lower death toll than the U.S. where the population is 2-2.5x older
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On top of that, it's likely that the global death toll from COVID-19 represents a very significant underestimate (could easily be 1.5-2 million deaths) and so the IFR with 10% of the global population infected is pretty much exactly what we'd predict
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In the Oz this morning, there is this quote: 'Correcting for that bias, Ioannidis concludes that the global IFR from COVID-19 is 0.24 per cent, while that in countries such as Australia is as low as 0.1 per cent.' From memory you had it around 0.68%. Thoughts?
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Well, Ioannidis' review of IFR has very significant flaws as I and many others have pointed out, so I would not be surprised if it was incorrect for Australia although I do not believe the latest version has Aus included
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Also worth noting is that due to the exponential skew we must not simply take the average of the age-IFRs as the average population IFR. Especially true for our aged western societies. I quickly calculated a population averaged IFR of 0.8% for the age distribution of Germany
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Yes, this is true. It is also important to remember that infection is not equally distributed across age groups in any place, and that this can also impact the IFR substantially
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Another important factor besides age is the availability of optimal health care (ICU treatment) We see this in the IFR numbers for Italy that were much higher than even accounting for the higher population age. Most probably due to ICU capacity limits.
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You are, as usual, exactly right. In this table, I calculated the expected IFR for each country based on their demographics (population pyramids), see https://github.com/mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr#results …pic.twitter.com/HK0PPQpyba
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The country with the oldest population is expected to have the highest overall IFR: Japan at >1.274% The country with the youngest population is expected to have the lowest overall IFR: Uganda at 0.074-0.147%.
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