Of course it could be that PFR = IFR if 100% of the population was infected. But I have it on good authority from the covid truthers that 80% of us are de-facto immune -- no more than 20% of a population can actually get sick.
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Replying to @ottartwain @Bernp1953P and
What? There are officially 23,689 dead from COVID in New York City (and that is almost certainly an undercount). Not many have died recently, meaning that number is reliable. There are 8,323,338 people in New York City. The goddamn math could not be more straight-forwardpic.twitter.com/79Psknfd2c
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Replying to @ottartwain @Bernp1953P and
Thanks, as I said: 0.3% population fatality rate.
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Replying to @greg_travis @ottartwain and
john mcclean Retweeted Derrick VanGennep
PFR was 1.6% in Castiglione d'Adda in Spring..https://twitter.com/VanGennepD/status/1304671388876394496?s=20 …
john mcclean added,
Derrick VanGennep @VanGennepDReplying to @CovidSerology @javid_lab and 2 others1.6% population mortality in Castiglione d'Adda, Italy. Small town of ~4,600 people. I think this is the highest I've seen now.@CovidSerology how is Guayaquil? Got a guess using excess mortality? https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_aprile_16/coronavirus-maxi-test-sierologici-positivi-50-giorni-castiglione-d-adda-diventa-paese-laboratorio-aaed091a-7fa1-11ea-8804-717fbf79e066.shtml …1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
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Replying to @ottartwain @johnmcclean_ie and
Having now conducted two systematic reviews into the topic, I'd say using an IFR of 0.3% for Europe in the first half of 2020 makes absolutely no sense and is probably wrong. I would use 1% or above, given the age breakdown of the infected population
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Replying to @GidMK @ottartwain and
I'm also increasingly confused by models that predict herd immunity thresholds far lower than those observed in real life. We know that it is common that >15% of a city is infected, thus a model that predicts this likely has errors I would say
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Ah, now that is not quite correct. HI is when R0 dips DUE TO IMMUNITY IN THE POPULATION - if the R0 decreases due to (potentially) transient factors such as social distancing then it is not HI (by definition)
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