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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @greg_travis @Bernp1953P and

      Of course it could be that PFR = IFR if 100% of the population was infected. But I have it on good authority from the covid truthers that 80% of us are de-facto immune -- no more than 20% of a population can actually get sick.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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    3. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ottartwain @Bernp1953P and

      What? There are officially 23,689 dead from COVID in New York City (and that is almost certainly an undercount). Not many have died recently, meaning that number is reliable. There are 8,323,338 people in New York City. The goddamn math could not be more straight-forwardpic.twitter.com/79Psknfd2c

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. This Tweet is unavailable.
    5. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ottartwain @Bernp1953P and

      Thanks, as I said: 0.3% population fatality rate.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. john mcclean‏ @johnmcclean_ie 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @greg_travis @ottartwain and

      john mcclean Retweeted Derrick VanGennep

      PFR was 1.6% in Castiglione d'Adda in Spring..https://twitter.com/VanGennepD/status/1304671388876394496?s=20 …

      john mcclean added,

      Derrick VanGennep @VanGennepD
      Replying to @CovidSerology @javid_lab and 2 others
      1.6% population mortality in Castiglione d'Adda, Italy. Small town of ~4,600 people. I think this is the highest I've seen now. @CovidSerology how is Guayaquil? Got a guess using excess mortality? https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_aprile_16/coronavirus-maxi-test-sierologici-positivi-50-giorni-castiglione-d-adda-diventa-paese-laboratorio-aaed091a-7fa1-11ea-8804-717fbf79e066.shtml …
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ottartwain @johnmcclean_ie and

      Having now conducted two systematic reviews into the topic, I'd say using an IFR of 0.3% for Europe in the first half of 2020 makes absolutely no sense and is probably wrong. I would use 1% or above, given the age breakdown of the infected population

      3 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ottartwain and

      I'm also increasingly confused by models that predict herd immunity thresholds far lower than those observed in real life. We know that it is common that >15% of a city is infected, thus a model that predicts this likely has errors I would say

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    10. This Tweet is unavailable.
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 30 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ottartwain @johnmcclean_ie and

      Ah, now that is not quite correct. HI is when R0 dips DUE TO IMMUNITY IN THE POPULATION - if the R0 decreases due to (potentially) transient factors such as social distancing then it is not HI (by definition)

      1:03 AM - 30 Sep 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • Atomsk's Sanakan Mike Carey john mcclean Rupert Beale
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