The @nzherald have just published a COVID-19 op-ed written by me and Dr Veronica Playle, on how "Plan B" is totally flawed, inequitable, and totally unworkable for our unique NZ situation.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=12369227 …
For those who love details, here's a THREAD with references /1
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First, why did we write this? Unfortunately, it is very likely that we will have to face-off with COVID-19 again in NZ (although I hope this is a long way away). When alert levels rise again, there will be dissenters. Plan B will be back in the news. We can't let that happen /2
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We are 6 months into the pandemic. Yet Plan B is still a bare bones 10-point plan, hopelessly lacking in detail. We couldn't find any modelling on the Plan B website to show how it will impact our communities and hospitals. Yet they receive disproportionate news coverage /3
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While their own Plan B "plan" hasn't received nearly as much criticism as they've dished out on the (expert-advised) government strategy. Being sticklers for detail, Ronnie and I took a look. There are at least 5 key flaws with Plan B. Let me explain: /4
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Plan B consistently tries to de-emphasise how severe COVID-19 can be for certain groups. In this painful interview with
@jacktame, Dr Simon Thornley cites a single meta-analysis of the IFR by epidemiologist John Ioannides. But this isn't the only IFR /5 https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a/clips/plan-b-epidemiologist-claims-the-science-shows-this-virus-isn-t-as-serious-as-first-thought …3 replies 5 retweets 44 likesShow this thread -
An IFR is the infection fatality rate (or proportion); the proportion of COVID-19 deaths from all those infected. The WHO's IFR estimate is considerably higher (0.5 - 1.0), as is this meta-analysis by
@GidMK & Merone (0.53 to 0.82) /6https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4.full.pdf+html …3 replies 5 retweets 43 likesShow this thread
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Now a published paperhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1311128479170138113?s=19 …
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