That study didn't show that, it used sensitive T cell test and relatively insensitive antibody test(s) – and not at a point where you'd expect everyone to have seroconverted.
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Replying to @Bernp1953P @bealelab and
FWIW I'm not claiming an IFR of 1%, just that it is a better fit for Spring than 0.3%. This is one of the best papers on IFRs by
@GidMK and@BillHanage. The 0.3% came from a blog entry / article from CEBM on IFRs falling overtime & is not age adjustedhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5 …3 replies 3 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @Bernp1953P and
Ивáн Инград Retweeted Ивáн Инград
I have seen 0'3% at more places than just one article from CEBM. Like those 6 papers:https://twitter.com/ivaningrad/status/1302036434891804672?s=20 …
Ивáн Инград added,
Ивáн Инград @ivaningradReplying to @ivaningrad @kikollan and 4 othershttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.31.20118554v4 … https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116 … https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30584-3/fulltext … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090076v2 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079244v1 …4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @ivaningrad @johnmcclean_ie and
How can the IFR be 0.3% if the population fatality rate is 0.3%?
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @greg_travis @johnmcclean_ie and
Can you read the papers before? I'm just showing those studies, because is not true IFR 0'3% is told just by ONE article from CEBM, there you have several studies saying the same in some different places. In how many places in the world PFR is 0'3%?
3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @ivaningrad @greg_travis and
Have you read them? The Swiss papers both found an IFR of 0.6%+. The review (which has numerous flaws) found IFRs mostly above 0.5% for Europe. Even the very small German study found 0.36%
2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @greg_travis and
The Swiss paper also say:pic.twitter.com/wsC1LrztDg
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @ivaningrad @greg_travis and
Yes, but it's rather unlikely that this would more than halve the IFR even if true. An IFR of 0.3% for Europe in spring is inconsistent with evidence from Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, CZR, Belgium, UK/England, Italy, France, Finland, Ireland, Spain, Lithuania, etc
2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @greg_travis and
Not true, I sent before those reports from Spain, 27.000 dead in nursing homes. This has been denounced and is being investigated, all this people didn't die by Covid, so, yes, 27.000 can change a lot the IFR.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
I suggest you read the systematic reviews I linked to in this thread. It is indeed true - most European countries had a much higher IFR than 0.3%
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