I haven't seen any studies suggesting 67% of infected people don't sero-convert. The ENE-COVID study suggested 88-92% seroconverted (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2931483-5 …).
Have you got links?
@bealelab @ScienceShared @CovidSerology @zorinaq @InCytometry does this seem realistic to you?
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Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @Bernp1953P and
I believe the ~90% seroconversion rather than the 35% one. I am not aware of any immunomodulatory activity of the virus that would drive seroconversion as low as 35%.
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Replying to @InCytometry @johnmcclean_ie and
The important thing with T cells vs Humoural response is that it is not one thing or t'other, it is normally both.
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Replying to @InCytometry @johnmcclean_ie and
Well the first study was from the Karolinska Institute. All seroprevalence has shown significant antibody decline after 6 weeks or so post infection. Therefore random studies will not detect older infected cases?
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Replying to @Bernp1953P @InCytometry and
That study didn't show that, it used sensitive T cell test and relatively insensitive antibody test(s) – and not at a point where you'd expect everyone to have seroconverted.
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Replying to @Bernp1953P @bealelab and
FWIW I'm not claiming an IFR of 1%, just that it is a better fit for Spring than 0.3%. This is one of the best papers on IFRs by
@GidMK and@BillHanage. The 0.3% came from a blog entry / article from CEBM on IFRs falling overtime & is not age adjustedhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5 …3 replies 3 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @Bernp1953P and
Ивáн Инград Retweeted Ивáн Инград
I have seen 0'3% at more places than just one article from CEBM. Like those 6 papers:https://twitter.com/ivaningrad/status/1302036434891804672?s=20 …
Ивáн Инград added,
Ивáн Инград @ivaningradReplying to @ivaningrad @kikollan and 4 othershttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.31.20118554v4 … https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116 … https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30584-3/fulltext … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090076v2 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079244v1 …4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @ivaningrad @johnmcclean_ie and
How can the IFR be 0.3% if the population fatality rate is 0.3%?
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Replying to @greg_travis @johnmcclean_ie and
Can you read the papers before? I'm just showing those studies, because is not true IFR 0'3% is told just by ONE article from CEBM, there you have several studies saying the same in some different places. In how many places in the world PFR is 0'3%?
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Have you read them? The Swiss papers both found an IFR of 0.6%+. The review (which has numerous flaws) found IFRs mostly above 0.5% for Europe. Even the very small German study found 0.36%
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Replying to @GidMK @ivaningrad and
It's impressive the number of high-quality covid research published and peer-reviewed that covid minimizers either have never read, or reject en bloc.
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Compared with?
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