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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Craig‏ @Craig_1_1_7 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @Bernp1953P and

      Yes, a good estimate for developed countries with typical ageing population (e.g. median age of 40) is 0.8-1.1% in the first wave in Spring and 0.4-0.7% in future waves, thanks to optimised oxygen treatment and steroids.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. Curious Sceptic  ✍️‏ @Bernp1953P 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Craig_1_1_7 @johnmcclean_ie and

      However 0.3% for London in spring. Median age 36.5 . Median age for UK is higher so how to adjust for that?

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Bernp1953P @Craig_1_1_7 and

      Median age for New York City 35.8 years (i.e. younger than London). Population (not infection) fatality rate of NYC is 0.3% (i.e. 0.3% of the ENTIRE population died, infected or not). Hard to see how the IFR of the disease could also be 0.3%.

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
    4. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @greg_travis @Bernp1953P and

      Of course it could be that PFR = IFR if 100% of the population was infected. But I have it on good authority from the covid truthers that 80% of us are de-facto immune -- no more than 20% of a population can actually get sick.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. This Tweet is unavailable.
    6. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ottartwain @Bernp1953P and

      What? There are officially 23,689 dead from COVID in New York City (and that is almost certainly an undercount). Not many have died recently, meaning that number is reliable. There are 8,323,338 people in New York City. The goddamn math could not be more straight-forwardpic.twitter.com/79Psknfd2c

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. This Tweet is unavailable.
    8. Gregory Travis‏ @greg_travis 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ottartwain @Bernp1953P and

      Thanks, as I said: 0.3% population fatality rate.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. john mcclean‏ @johnmcclean_ie 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @greg_travis @ottartwain and

      john mcclean Retweeted Derrick VanGennep

      PFR was 1.6% in Castiglione d'Adda in Spring..https://twitter.com/VanGennepD/status/1304671388876394496?s=20 …

      john mcclean added,

      Derrick VanGennep @VanGennepD
      Replying to @CovidSerology @javid_lab and 2 others
      1.6% population mortality in Castiglione d'Adda, Italy. Small town of ~4,600 people. I think this is the highest I've seen now. @CovidSerology how is Guayaquil? Got a guess using excess mortality? https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_aprile_16/coronavirus-maxi-test-sierologici-positivi-50-giorni-castiglione-d-adda-diventa-paese-laboratorio-aaed091a-7fa1-11ea-8804-717fbf79e066.shtml …
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. This Tweet is unavailable.
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ottartwain @johnmcclean_ie and

      Having now conducted two systematic reviews into the topic, I'd say using an IFR of 0.3% for Europe in the first half of 2020 makes absolutely no sense and is probably wrong. I would use 1% or above, given the age breakdown of the infected population

      2:47 PM - 29 Sep 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 10 Likes
      • Mahan Ghafari | ماهان غفاری EauxSnap Marc Bevand Willem van Schaik 💙 JM Pienaar AI Narc is out of coffice john mcclean Gregory Travis
      3 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 29 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ottartwain and

          I'm also increasingly confused by models that predict herd immunity thresholds far lower than those observed in real life. We know that it is common that >15% of a city is infected, thus a model that predicts this likely has errors I would say

          3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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        1. New conversation
        2. Gerry Killeen #corkcanbezero #WeCanBeZero‏ @killeen_gerry 29 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and

          Oh my. Wish I could confidently take issue with that view.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Curious Sceptic  ✍️‏ @Bernp1953P 30 Sep 2020
          Replying to @ottartwain @GidMK and

          I think the Gomes model is exactly that, greater refinement of key parameters to provide alternative hypotheses based on fitting the data. It’s perfectly valid approach to modelling. Ferguson model is tautological as it cannot be verified for worst case. 1/

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation

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