Yes, a good estimate for developed countries with typical ageing population (e.g. median age of 40) is 0.8-1.1% in the first wave in Spring and 0.4-0.7% in future waves, thanks to optimised oxygen treatment and steroids.
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I'm also increasingly confused by models that predict herd immunity thresholds far lower than those observed in real life. We know that it is common that >15% of a city is infected, thus a model that predicts this likely has errors I would say
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Oh my. Wish I could confidently take issue with that view.
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I think the Gomes model is exactly that, greater refinement of key parameters to provide alternative hypotheses based on fitting the data. It’s perfectly valid approach to modelling. Ferguson model is tautological as it cannot be verified for worst case. 1/
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