Exhibit A) the UK. Tough spring surge. Per capita mortality now somewhere around 600 or so per million. Not much meaningful NPIs or test trace etc. Ouch. That's not
6/npic.twitter.com/FkXTePOErI
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Exhibit A) the UK. Tough spring surge. Per capita mortality now somewhere around 600 or so per million. Not much meaningful NPIs or test trace etc. Ouch. That's not
6/npic.twitter.com/FkXTePOErI
I should note btw that there was *huge* lack of testing in the spring, and so that second surge of infections is still nowhere near as large as the first despite how it appears, but it is still going up. Action now will help prevent it getting worse 7/n
Exhibit B) Sweden per capita mortality also ~600/million. Suggests relatively mild interventions w a strong social safety net can avoid exponential growth even if it also shows how utterly disastrous it is to allow many infections in older people. still not so nope
8/npic.twitter.com/2B02o2Y8MY
Honestly, anyone saying Sweden shows herd immunity works is just an example of extreme cognitive dissonance. If rates of infection carry on about the same, there's not herd immunity. Duh. 9/n
Exhibit C) the Boston area. Where was hardest hit in the spring? The relatively poor northern suburbs. Surely these *must* now be on the downturn, there are even antibodies to suggest many were infected https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/ … 10/n
Nope. Even is Chelsea is no longer the highest risk in the state it's because others have caught up - transmission continues there. No
https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/09/24/15-high-risk-communities-september-24-2020 … 11/n
So I come to NYC. Which has a quite literally eye watering 2500+ deaths/million so far. It is also enacting reasonably strong interventions still, even if we've moved on from the disaster of the spring. Infections must be dropping of their own accord. They must be. Right? 12/n
Er wrong. It's low but not going down of its own accord. No
. That steady rate is a tribute to sacrifices made by literally millions to limit transmission (data from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page …) 13/npic.twitter.com/S6yCS2nQIT
Even more worrying, perhaps, is the rising number of cases in the orthodox Jewish communities that we all thought might be one of the few places in the U.S. that ~had~ reached a threshold sufficient for population immunityhttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/nyregion/coronavirus-Orthodox-Jewish-neighborhoods.html …
I think you have missed the point of the thread
No. The point of the thread is that the claims of population immunity are not consistent with the data at hand
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