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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Rootclaim‏ @Rootclaim 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Rootclaim @GidMK

      3. The small sample is of little relevance once p-value and CI were established. 4. There is nothing weird with 100% completion when all you're doing is giving a safe oral treatment once every few days and counting ICU admissions. 5...

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Rootclaim‏ @Rootclaim 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Rootclaim @GidMK

      5. The difference in hypertension has been corrected for and accounts for only a small part of the strong effect. 6. Waiting for better data is an horrendous decision. We must evaluate the effect of the biases, their likelihood, and the risk/benefit of each decision.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Rootclaim‏ @Rootclaim 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Rootclaim @GidMK

      Please correct these mistakes, as they are very harmful during a pandemic. See here our full analysis: https://blog.rootclaim.com/vitamin-d-can-likely-end-the-covid-19-pandemic/ … And we are also offering a $100,000 challenge to back up our analysis. https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/ … Thank you!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Rootclaim

      I replied elsewhere. This is spam and very annoying

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @Rootclaim

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      Anyway:https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1310748167877484544?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Replying to @Rootclaim
      In order: 1. that's why I used the ~ sign for "roughly" or "about" 2. unclear 3. wrong 4. yes there is. Similar trials have at least a few patients drop out 5. where has it been accounted for? 6. emotive appeal, not a mistake with my analysis
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Saar Wilf‏ @saarwilf 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @Rootclaim

      1. The mistake was in using 13/50 instead of 13/26 and in comparing probabilities rather than odds. 2. We verified it with the authors. 3. Please provide an example where a small sample fails despite a strong p-value. 4...

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Saar Wilf‏ @saarwilf 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @saarwilf @GidMK @Rootclaim

      4. Where is the challenge in giving to 50 hospitalized patients a safe oral treatment every few days? Why would anyone drop out? 5. Search "multivariate logistic regression" in the paper. 6...

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Saar Wilf‏ @saarwilf 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @saarwilf @GidMK @Rootclaim

      6. The point is that in a pandemic, we don't have the luxury of waiting for absolute certainty, we need to make the best decision for patients using the best information we have. 7. Please do not block people making an honest scientific discussion on matters of such importance.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @saarwilf @Rootclaim

      If you don't want people to block, I'd suggest refraining from tweeting the same tweets several times. I just automatically block that these days, it's very annoying

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @saarwilf @Rootclaim

      Anyway, more broadly you haven't actually addressed anything I've said aside from the ICU admission point. If you've confirmed with the authors, I'd recommend that they request a revision from the journal specifying that this was the case because it is currently unclear

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @saarwilf @Rootclaim

      The p-value point is a misunderstanding of the problem with small samples (it's not all about 'significance'). This is mirrored in the response to point 5 - this sample is FAR too small to run a multivariable logistic regression, all you'd get is noise if you adjusted

      6:46 PM - 28 Sep 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Jake Kushner MD Yuval
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @saarwilf @Rootclaim

          As ever, I'm not making any firm claims, I'm pointing out the limitations of the evidence - claiming that this study is firm proof of anything is quite obviously incorrect. Whether or not that should impact clinical decision-making is another debate entirely

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @saarwilf @Rootclaim

          Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

          Also, I cannot stress this point enough. The study was CLEARLY intended as a pilot (which explains many of the deficiencies!)https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1303561709349527554?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
          I should also mention that this is not in any way an indictment of the study's authors. This was clearly meant to be a pilot study, and should be read as such It is just a shame that people have instead sensationalized the research
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Saar Wilf‏ @saarwilf 28 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Rootclaim

          It's the same: It is indeed hard to reach significance with logistic regression on small samples, but if the effect is strong, it can work. In this case it is, reporting 95% CI of 0.003−0.25. If this study's conclusion is wrong, it's definitely not due to the small sample size.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 28 Sep 2020
          Replying to @saarwilf @Rootclaim

          It's not hard to reach statistical significance at all with small samples and logistic regression. What's hard is to see a meaningful result once you add in numerous 'control' variables

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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