Interested to see if this doctor is trolled to same extent as @catrollison and I for pointing out that covid is likely silently circulating in NSW considering what we know about asymptomatic spread and that not every case is found through testing
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-29/nsw-coronavirus-could-the-state-have-wiped-out-covid/12710812 …
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Yes - NSW is not unique, just like Victoria is not unique. I see you’re an epidemiologist (
); do you agree with the quoted epidemiologist in the article - and NSW Health - that there is ‘no point’ in a symptomatic testing except for high risk (eg travelers in hotel quarantine) -
Of course I get that everyone has different opinions, different research etc - which is why it’s good to get a mix of opinions from experts
whether or not their expectations play out of course
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Not circulating in SA as per sewage testing released last week. But yes, I agree with you that virus can circulate without showing up in testing if it doesn’t reach vulnerable cohorts. For instance, look at Scotland where it circulated amongst teens for months before exploding.
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It ~hasn't been detected~ by sewerage monitoring in SA, but that's a very blunt tool and definitely not something I'd rely on as a certainty. I'd be somewhat surprised if there wasn't some level of background transmission, given the experience in Wuhan and NZ
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I reckon you’d be hard pressed to argue that it’s not been eradicated in WA, NT, TAS. QLD definitely a question mark. SA question mark will appear given we now have unrestricted travel with NSW where authorities keep telling us it’s circulating. Fingers crossed for the long wknd.
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Given the experiences in Wuhan and NZ - with 100s of days of no confirmed infections, negative sewerage monitoring etc - I'm very cautious about using the word eradicated. With the evidence so far, it seems likely that there is ~some~ level of spread
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