As I said, not sure that was the case in Germany in July. And not sure people would be hospitalized needlessly (ever), so the question is really if improved outcomes are function of admitting less sick people (possibly true UK, but less so Germany), or better management, or both?
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Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and
My point is that you don't need needless hospitalizations for the denominator to change. Changes in testing, procedures, improved flow etc could all impact who gets hospitalized and at what point in disease progression
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Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and
not sure I agree, esp. for systems that weren't constrained (like London was).
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Replying to @javid_lab @GidMK and
Where does it say they are hospital specific CFRs? I’ve read the doc a few times and have missed that. I see the denominator defined as lab confirmed cases, and the numerator as deaths. More testing would increase the denominator.
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Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @javid_lab and
Can see a massive increase in testing in Germany (in absolute terms) and declining cases followed by a smaller rise in summer.pic.twitter.com/i21kHLyDmb
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Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @GidMK and
yes, there has been increase in testing pretty much everywhere...but I still don't buy it that people were dying from lack of resources in Germany. And Germany wasn't so lacking in testing that people with likely Covid who were seriously ill weren't being tested...
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Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and
It doesn't have to be about dying for lack of resources tho, I think that's where the misunderstanding is coming from. Changes in hospital mortality can come from a changing denominator regardless
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Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and
You may be right, technically. I'm not saying Covid has turned into the common cold. But I would be flabbergasted if (in absence of hospitals overwhelmed), fewer people, like for like aren't dying from it now cf April.
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Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and
I would be entirely unsurprised if fewer people were dying, and similarly unsurprised if this was not true. There are good reasons to think that it could happen, and good reasons to think it won't
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Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and
I guess I would ask: what would convince you that the IFR is improving? Infections are inferred, so the IFR is always an indirect measure.
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The only way to be sure is a good longitudinal seroprevalence sample which is something I'm looking at now
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