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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @sTeamTraen and

      yes, and no. I'm fairly confident that in Germany of all places, people were being hospitalised if required even in the Spring, so having hospital-specific CFRs falling suggests lower mortality from management (imo).

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and

      Sure, but testing improved substantially everywhere which may have impacted when people were admitted to hospitals. Hospitalization protocols have also changed - basically, the denominators are not the same

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and

      German hospitals were never under strain (unlike in the UK). Whilst I cannot be certain, incorporating both anecdotal and statistical data (not age stratified) from UK suggests we are better at managing Covid. And that's not surprising: it's true for most diseases.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and

      Sure, but what I'm saying is not that the hospitals are better or worse, but that it is very likely that the hospitalized population has changed as the understanding of the virus has evolved

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and

      As I said, not sure that was the case in Germany in July. And not sure people would be hospitalized needlessly (ever), so the question is really if improved outcomes are function of admitting less sick people (possibly true UK, but less so Germany), or better management, or both?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and

      My point is that you don't need needless hospitalizations for the denominator to change. Changes in testing, procedures, improved flow etc could all impact who gets hospitalized and at what point in disease progression

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and

      not sure I agree, esp. for systems that weren't constrained (like London was).

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. john mcclean‏ @johnmcclean_ie 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab @GidMK and

      Where does it say they are hospital specific CFRs? I’ve read the doc a few times and have missed that. I see the denominator defined as lab confirmed cases, and the numerator as deaths. More testing would increase the denominator.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. john mcclean‏ @johnmcclean_ie 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @javid_lab and

      Can see a massive increase in testing in Germany (in absolute terms) and declining cases followed by a smaller rise in summer.pic.twitter.com/i21kHLyDmb

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @GidMK and

      yes, there has been increase in testing pretty much everywhere...but I still don't buy it that people were dying from lack of resources in Germany. And Germany wasn't so lacking in testing that people with likely Covid who were seriously ill weren't being tested...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Sep 2020
      Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and

      It doesn't have to be about dying for lack of resources tho, I think that's where the misunderstanding is coming from. Changes in hospital mortality can come from a changing denominator regardless

      10:22 PM - 27 Sep 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Babak Javid‏ @javid_lab 27 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and

          You may be right, technically. I'm not saying Covid has turned into the common cold. But I would be flabbergasted if (in absence of hospitals overwhelmed), fewer people, like for like aren't dying from it now cf April.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Sep 2020
          Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and

          I would be entirely unsurprised if fewer people were dying, and similarly unsurprised if this was not true. There are good reasons to think that it could happen, and good reasons to think it won't

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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