I saw data from Germany that even age-stratified IFRs fell between Spring and Summer (no idea if plateaued, wouldn't be surprised).
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That would be interesting to see. Is there a paper? And do you think that is a seasonal effect, better treatments or something else?
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It was this analysis by
@carlheneghan and colleagues.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
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Replying to @javid_lab @sTeamTraen and
john mcclean Retweeted Health Nerd
Thanks. That’s for CFR though, I don’t think it’s safe to assume the same trend in IFRs.
@GidMK who has been studying this posted this yesterday-https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1309992250496016384?s=20 …john mcclean added,
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Replying to @johnmcclean_ie @sTeamTraen and
yes, and no. I'm fairly confident that in Germany of all places, people were being hospitalised if required even in the Spring, so having hospital-specific CFRs falling suggests lower mortality from management (imo).
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Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and
Sure, but testing improved substantially everywhere which may have impacted when people were admitted to hospitals. Hospitalization protocols have also changed - basically, the denominators are not the same
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Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and
German hospitals were never under strain (unlike in the UK). Whilst I cannot be certain, incorporating both anecdotal and statistical data (not age stratified) from UK suggests we are better at managing Covid. And that's not surprising: it's true for most diseases.
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Replying to @javid_lab @johnmcclean_ie and
Sure, but what I'm saying is not that the hospitals are better or worse, but that it is very likely that the hospitalized population has changed as the understanding of the virus has evolved
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Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and
As I said, not sure that was the case in Germany in July. And not sure people would be hospitalized needlessly (ever), so the question is really if improved outcomes are function of admitting less sick people (possibly true UK, but less so Germany), or better management, or both?
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My point is that you don't need needless hospitalizations for the denominator to change. Changes in testing, procedures, improved flow etc could all impact who gets hospitalized and at what point in disease progression
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Replying to @GidMK @johnmcclean_ie and
not sure I agree, esp. for systems that weren't constrained (like London was).
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Replying to @javid_lab @GidMK and
Where does it say they are hospital specific CFRs? I’ve read the doc a few times and have missed that. I see the denominator defined as lab confirmed cases, and the numerator as deaths. More testing would increase the denominator.
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