For context, death rates due to COVID-19 by age: 20 years: 1 in 20,000 40 years: 1 in 1,400 60 years: 1 in 135 70 years: 1 in 40 80+ years: 1 in 7https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1309239741515067392 …
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You mean 1 in 455?
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Yes, the equation does get a bit dicey in 90+ ages, I suspect in the oldest people the risk plateaus but since there haven't been specific studies on them hard to say for sure
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I got the 50 => 0.22, but the computed probabilities for higher ages look sketchy. Does the 1.95 for age 68 means the person is 100% certain to die, and then his resurrected zombie form has a 95% probability of dying?pic.twitter.com/ZyrHGqBdNf
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This is expressed as a unit percentage, so 1.95% not 195%
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Dr. Nerd, is your formula for those infected with the virus, or US overall? These are fatality rates for *infected* are from the rightmost column of the Scenarios table: 0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#table-1 …
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