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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Sep 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      For context, death rates due to COVID-19 by age: 20 years: 1 in 20,000 40 years: 1 in 1,400 60 years: 1 in 135 70 years: 1 in 40 80+ years: 1 in 7https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1309239741515067392 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      It is quite fascinating that if you tell someone they have a 99.5% of surviving they think it's fine but tell them 1 in 200 people die and it's very scary People are so odd
      40 replies 230 retweets 509 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Kool Fool‏ @KOOLFOOLTATTOO 24 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

      Where is the stat for 50 years old?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM 24 Sep 2020
      Replying to @KOOLFOOLTATTOO @GidMK

      (my area of interest as well 😁)

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Sep 2020
      Replying to @MackayIM @KOOLFOOLTATTOO

      The equation that we derived in our metaregression is e^(-7.56+0.121*age), so plugging in 50 years is 0.22% 🙂

      4:21 PM - 24 Sep 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 9 Likes
      • Mikko Heikkilä 😊 flavianv Johnny Rhee🔴 Thatcher Ulrich Stuart Kool Fool Mark MedicalNews Brian J. Gadd
      3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
        1. Chris #GetVaccinated‏ @scorp99cam 24 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM @KOOLFOOLTATTOO

          You mean 1 in 455? 😉

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Sep 2020
          Replying to @AndrewHayen @MackayIM @KOOLFOOLTATTOO

          Yes, the equation does get a bit dicey in 90+ ages, I suspect in the oldest people the risk plateaus but since there haven't been specific studies on them hard to say for sure

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Hoyt‏ @Hoytster 24 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM @KOOLFOOLTATTOO

          I got the 50 => 0.22, but the computed probabilities for higher ages look sketchy. Does the 1.95 for age 68 means the person is 100% certain to die, and then his resurrected zombie form has a 95% probability of dying?pic.twitter.com/ZyrHGqBdNf

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Sep 2020
          Replying to @Hoytster @MackayIM @KOOLFOOLTATTOO

          This is expressed as a unit percentage, so 1.95% not 195%

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Hoyt‏ @Hoytster 27 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM @KOOLFOOLTATTOO

          Dr. Nerd, is your formula for those infected with the virus, or US overall? These are fatality rates for *infected* are from the rightmost column of the Scenarios table: 0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#table-1 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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