The biggest enemy of scientific enquiry is confirmation bias - if you immediately believe things that support your argument you are bound to be wrong quite a lot
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can you link to the large random serosurvey in Tokyo? how do you get almost 50% seroprevalence in ANY group in Tokyo given the low number of cases detected? There must be more going on here than the fact that these were workers at 1 company. I mean...was it a meat-packing plant?
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It was only people who volunteered at that company. And only a small subset of those people. It's phenomenal that a serious scientist would present this "finding" as if it were meaningful. But then, maybe Levitt isn't a serious scientist anymore.
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But if seroconversion is shorter-lived than we thought (they mention some reverted during the study), are many studies just missing the window?
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Indeed, though I would say "detectable seroconversion with current AB tests".
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"If representative" doing a lot of heavy lifting.
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Is it just me or is it odd how vague they're being about the company from which this sample is taken? I'd understand if they don't want to/aren't able to name the company, but knowing the general industry (are most workers public-facing or isolated in offices?) seems relevant!
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Also, did they do any checks to ensure that their sample was even representative of the company's workforce? The results would be pretty useless if the sample greatly overrepresents cashiers or waiters or other customer service workers over office workers, for example
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You are omitting that whole it’s a single company the people come from different, not connected, branches in Tokyo. That the test kit has very high sensitivity and specificity. That being said, I agree there are some flaws, but the way you are dismissing it shows the same bias
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Re: "A recent large-scale random serosurvey in Tokyo found rates of infection 100x lower than this" Yup. It's a problem, as pointed out in the paper you co-authored, with respect to hospitals and outpatient clinics. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1286196692677799936 … https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …pic.twitter.com/xxOwaGMaFu
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Tokyo strikes again: https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1288251972408180741 … "Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG Antibodies in Utsunomiya City, Greater Tokyo, after first pandemic in 2020 (U-CORONA): a household- and population-based study" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20155945v1 …pic.twitter.com/dnMxqhEDhp
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