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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. the meg  🦈 ⚡️ 🌈‏ @oh_megs 23 Sep 2020

      the meg  🦈 ⚡️ 🌈 Retweeted Ron DeSantis

      Could @nataliexdean debrief this? Because isn’t the numbers he is referring to simply the model estimates (from European studies) of best case scenario and not the actual estimates? Or am I too tired to read everything correctly? :(https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1308824541104398337 …

      the meg  🦈 ⚡️ 🌈 added,

      Ron DeSantisVerified account @GovRonDeSantis
      CDC recently updated estimated infection fatality rates for COVID. Here are the updated survival rates by age group: 0-19: 99.997% 20-49: 99.98% 50-69: 99.5% 70+: 94.6% https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html …
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 23 Sep 2020
      Replying to @oh_megs

      CC @GidMK

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Sep 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean @oh_megs

      Ugh, looks like they've done a bit of a weird thing there. Firstly, it's using an old model of IFR from Hubei data applied to Europe and then reapplied to the US from what I can see. The IFRs in the current best estimate scenario don't seem wildly wrong

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @nataliexdean @oh_megs

      But the problem is that the age bands are very broad and the 80+ IFR is apparently excluded. So 50-69 looks like 69 year olds are pretty safe (0.5%) when actually they are much higher risk (~1.6%) for example

      8:25 PM - 23 Sep 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • the meg 🦈⚡️🌈 christophe 😷 Brian J. Gadd Andreas Prucha 🔴🟡
      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @nataliexdean @oh_megs

          Similarly, having a single age group from 20-49 makes the rate seem minuscule, but the IFR differs vastly between a 20 yo (~0.006%) and 49 yo (~0.2%)

          2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
        3. Dr. Lynora Saxinger  🇨🇦 *not checking mentions‏Verified account @AntibioticDoc 23 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @nataliexdean @oh_megs

          I am really wondering why EVERYONE DOESN’T JUST AGREE TO USE DECADES DAMMIT. Although to be honest 5 year bands below age 20 would be kinda useful in addition.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Mike Babyak‏ @mababyak 23 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @nataliexdean @oh_megs

          I will never understand why in the age of readily available flexible functions like cubic splines and fractional polynomials people are still making ridiculously arbitrary bins.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Alan White‏ @AW50968253 24 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @nataliexdean @oh_megs

          It's hard not to be cynical and think they selected the age bands for exactly that purpose.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robert Mauri‏ @patentbobm 24 Sep 2020
          Replying to @AW50968253 @GidMK and

          Please, be cynical, as it allows people like DeSantis to "prove" we can open everything with relative immunity, and gives credence to the argument that young people are unaffected and 99.xx percent of people are unaffected.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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