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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Dr Clare Craig‏ @ClareCraigPath 18 Sep 2020

      Dr Clare Craig Retweeted talkRADIO

      Who ever is advising @MattHancock does not know what a false positive is. It is the percentage of tests done that will be positive. At 1% it would mean half of current cases have been misdiagnosed.https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1306916231170191361 …

      Dr Clare Craig added,

      2:52
      talkRADIOVerified account @talkRADIO
      Health Secretary Matt Hancock tells Julia that community Covid-19 tests have a "very small proportion of false positives" and reveals the false positive rate is "under one per cent." Watch in full ► http://youtu.be/ZEqm0ldWf-8  @JuliaHB1 | @MattHancock pic.twitter.com/ulrkNEX2Bi
      100 replies 426 retweets 902 likes
    2. Pierssy  💙‏ @Pierssy 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ClareCraigPath @MattHancock

      Pierssy  💙 Retweeted Health Nerd

      As a lay person in all this I am becoming confused, you say one thing and an epidemiologist says the opposite.https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1308008138260455425?s=20 …

      Pierssy  💙 added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Have you read that 90% of COVID-19 tests are false positives? Turns out, that's total nonsense. False positives are very rare, most positives are just that: positive https://medium.com/@gidmk/most-positive-coronavirus-tests-are-true-positives-60c95fe54fec …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Dr Clare Craig‏ @ClareCraigPath 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Pierssy @MattHancock

      I'm afraid there's no justification for him claiming the false positive rate is 1 in 1000.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Anthony Cochrane‏ @m0102940 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ClareCraigPath @Pierssy @MattHancock

      1st the false positive rate is probably between 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 (0.1-1%). So @GidMK is correct. What Clare is trying to say is based upon @carlheneghan paper which states that If you do lots & lots of tests in people with you create more false positives. 1/n

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Anthony Cochrane‏ @m0102940 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @m0102940 @ClareCraigPath and

      For example - if you tested everyone in the world for Smallpox (now eradicated and thus impossible to actually have) with a test 99.999999% specific would would still get 7000 positive results.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Anthony Cochrane‏ @m0102940 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @m0102940 @ClareCraigPath and

      But if you test when something is common place you might underestimate it because test only picks up 70-80% of cases. So the higher infection levels the bigger the bigger the underestimate- whereas low infection levels tend to overestimate.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @m0102940 @ClareCraigPath and

      This is factually accurate, but as we usually test for COVID-19 in people that we are suspicious of having the disease (as opposed to a random sample a la ONS) the prevalence is quite substantially higher than the population prevalence

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @m0102940 and

      Given the extremely high specificity of the test in operation (ONS estimates 99.92%+), to have a positive predictive value of only 50% we would need a population prevalence of <0.1% in the population tested (people being referred for tests)

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Dr Clare Craig‏ @ClareCraigPath 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @m0102940 and

      You can't prove that 99.92% figure. ONS can only hazard a guess.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ClareCraigPath @m0102940 and

      It is the minimum POSSIBLE figure if every positive in their validation dataset was a false positive. The true number is likely closer to 100%, as seen in Australia, China, and Germany, but as the worst possible situation it is a useful example

      11:59 PM - 21 Sep 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Pierssy 💙
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ClareCraigPath and

          In the first week of August the Australian state of NSW ran 150,000 tests and recorded 110 positives. In an absolute worst case scenario, where every positive was false, that implies a sensitivity of 0% and a specificity of ~99.94%

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dr Clare Craig‏ @ClareCraigPath 22 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @m0102940 and

          False positives are not just a result of the testing process. They are also a function of the population being tested. Plus you can't take a minimum value - it will tend to a mean.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Corona Realism  🟢‏ @holmenkollin 22 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ClareCraigPath and

          In Germany? We never had it studied from my knowledge. What are you referring to?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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