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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @liammannix @bencubby

      Imo one of the biggest issues is not the unit of measurement but the comparison. QALYs are as good a metric any other, WTP thresholds are fine, but you have to compare government action to a reasonable counterfactual

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. ASO Vice President‏ @presidentaso 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @liammannix @bencubby

      Start with the projected death rate of missed and delayed breast and bowel cancers over a 3 month lockdown period. The cumulative health Morbidity and mortality from lockdown would dwarf the Covid losses across the board.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @presidentaso @liammannix @bencubby

      That seems extremely unlikely to be true. For one thing, the Aus cancer notifications don't appear to be dramatically different due to lockdowns. For another, the counterfactual is important e.g. how much cancer screening was NYC doing at the height of its pandemic

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. ASO Vice President‏ @presidentaso 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @liammannix @bencubby

      Well, for example, in 3 months there would be X diagnoses of aggressive breast cancer found by screening. If these are not found until November this translates to Y cases of breast cancer not treated early enough. Current stats would not capture these outcomes.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @presidentaso @liammannix @bencubby

      The screening programs won't release their reports until next year on number of accesses, but it would be very surprising if we managed to diagnose the same number of cancers without screening identifying cases

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @presidentaso and

      It's also incorrect to postulate that lockdowns had a universally negative impact on non-COVID health. Notably, deaths due to accidents dropped dramatically, and since impact young people the impact would not be small i.e.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.28.20183699v2 …

      10:07 PM - 21 Sep 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Pieter Peach Liam Mannix
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. ASO Vice President‏ @presidentaso 21 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @liammannix @bencubby

          Sure. Valid point. Traumas down. Probably surgical deaths from expected complications too! It would be one hell of a model!

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Sep 2020
          Replying to @presidentaso @liammannix @bencubby

          Definitely. I suspect any good cost-benefit analysis is going to take years to design!

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies

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