Who ever is advising @MattHancock does not know what a false positive is. It is the percentage of tests done that will be positive. At 1% it would mean half of current cases have been misdiagnosed.https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1306916231170191361 …
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Given the extremely high specificity of the test in operation (ONS estimates 99.92%+), to have a positive predictive value of only 50% we would need a population prevalence of <0.1% in the population tested (people being referred for tests)
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Thank you this thread is helping me, a Joe average understand what is going on, I won't say I understand it and I couldn't describe it to another Joe, but I feel reassured that my doubt over the 90% thing is in the right direction. Stay safe.
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It is based upon a misunderstanding of the point prevalence at any particular point in time- even if it is low in the population it is only the prevelsncr in the population who are tested which affects results. Hence if pee test probability high then results more accurate.
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