This piece is incorrect in a number of ways, but the most glaringly obvious mistake is that the prevalence of COVID-19 in people getting tests in the UK (a highly selected population) is the same as that in the random population sampling from the ONS
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Replying to @GidMK @MichaelYeadon3
In reality, people who are tested are at a vastly higher risk of infection than the general population, because the main reason for accessing a test is being symptomatic for disease. The true prevalence in this population is around 4-5%
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Replying to @GidMK @MichaelYeadon3
Moreover, this simplistic calculation doesn't account for retesting, which is common in positive but asymptomatic cases, or in negative but symptomatic cases Thus, it is likely that the false positive rate in the reported UK statistics is quite close to 0%
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