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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Julia Hartley-Brewer

      Perhaps unsurprisingly for a blog called "lockdown skeptics", this piece makes basic mathematical and epidemiological mistakes. In fact, very few positive COVID-19 tests are falsehttps://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1307586325663698945 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Julia Hartley-BrewerVerified account @JuliaHB1
      Every journalist and MP should be asking the PM & Health Secretary: why are we using a Covid-19 test that has 90% false positives? Read this by ⁦@MichaelYeadon3⁩: Lies, Damned Lies and Health Statistics – the Deadly Danger of False Positives. https://lockdownsceptics.org/lies-damned-lies-and-health-statistics-the-deadly-danger-of-false-positives/ …
      Show this thread
      7 replies 45 retweets 138 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020

      The basic error presented here is the assumption that all PCR tests are run on a random population sample of the UK, for which the prevalence is 1/1000 This is inaccuratepic.twitter.com/5otBWj16Gn

      2 replies 3 retweets 21 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020

      Most PCR tests in the UK (and everywhere) are run on the SUSPICION of COVID-19 In other words, it's a SELECTED POPULATION with a HIGHER PREVALENCE

      3 replies 2 retweets 25 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020

      We can see this in the % positive of COVID-19 tests run in the UK. While it's relatively low now, it is still above 1% (i.e. >1/100 tests run come back positive)pic.twitter.com/nozHjsCgaE

      1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020

      In other words, we EXPECT the rate of true positives to be FAR HIGHER in those receiving PCR tests than in the general population BY DESIGN So the central premise of the article is completely flawed

      1 reply 0 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020

      I'd say it's not unlikely that there are 10-20% false positives, depending on the population sampled, but since many/most people who get a positive PCR test are re-tested it's largely a non-issue in terms of the statistics

      2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Phil Ochs Ghost‏ @philochsghost 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      20% false positive with PCR. Impossible!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @philochsghost

      To be fair, that's coming from the context of NSW where the % positive is currently sitting at 0.07%. Even if lab contamination only happens in 1 test per 10,000, we'd have as many false positives as real ones here!

      7:19 PM - 20 Sep 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @philochsghost

          That being said, virtually every positive is retested, so the *true* rate of false positives in the record is probably 0% or close to that

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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