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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @JeanmarcBenoit @MLevitt_NP2013 @TheLancet

      I'd say it was testing related. Too little of it initially. But when are you asking about?

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    2. Jean Marc Benoit MD‏ @JeanmarcBenoit 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @MackayIM @MLevitt_NP2013 @TheLancet

      Thx for reply! Asking about big peak in March-April. There are explanations for infectivity (mass transit, population density), but not for lethality. The testing issue might well explain failure to contain, but I still wonder re lethality. Hence my question re strain type

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @JeanmarcBenoit @MLevitt_NP2013 @TheLancet

      If you didn't test enough or only looked at pneumonia or fever+X or travellers, your denominator is small (misses mild, presympt & local cases) and the ratio of death among those infected (=testing positive) looks higher than it likely is

      1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
    4. Jean Marc Benoit MD‏ @JeanmarcBenoit 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @MackayIM @MLevitt_NP2013 @TheLancet

      Yes I agree! We are in a much better position now to gauge the extent and severity of the pandemic than in March. There is a significant difference in the mortality rate in New York City to the rest of the US though, which is independent of testing rates?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @JeanmarcBenoit @MLevitt_NP2013 @TheLancet

      I don't think so

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    6. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @MackayIM @JeanmarcBenoit and

      IFR in NYC in March/April was 1-1.5%. IFR in the US is ~0.6% in March-May, which *includes* the NYC data. So US minus NYC is likely lower than 0.6%. I would personally consider that to be significant. And this is independent of testing.

      13 replies 4 retweets 26 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu @MackayIM and

      Our paper almost entirely explains this difference - it is due to the age breakdown of those infected. In NYC, there were a relatively large proportion of infections in the elderly, compared to Utah (for example) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …pic.twitter.com/ddIc0RJxx0

      6 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
    8. Eneko Axpe‏ @enekoaxpe 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu and

      Eneko Axpe Retweeted Eneko Axpe

      More than 6 months ago, IFR was already estimated to be 0.3% - 1.0%. Some important professors and editors said at that time that COVID-19 was >35x deadlier than flu (they were comparing CFR to IFR). Reality is that COVID-19 seems to be ~6x deadlier than flu.https://twitter.com/enekoaxpe/status/1237968865822294018 …

      Eneko Axpe added,

      Eneko Axpe @enekoaxpe
      A fairer comparison of death rates COVID-19 versus Flu👇🏽 pic.twitter.com/1ZSxneExwt
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @enekoaxpe @youyanggu and

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      Nah you've got the wrong number for influenza IFR, that's the CDC's estimate of the symptomatic CFRhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1306726340226215936?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      The CDC estimates that the SYMPTOMATIC CASE-FATALITY RATE (CFR) for influenza is ~0.1% The estimate of the INFECTION-FATALITY RATE (IFR) is closer to ~0.05%, due to asymptomatic flu cases pic.twitter.com/YK4M8qH19M
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Eneko Axpe‏ @enekoaxpe 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu and

      If IFR for flu is ~0.05% as you point out, this would mean COVID-19 is ~12x deadlier than flu. Check this out though👇pic.twitter.com/8qj3WH5uRk

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Sep 2020
      Replying to @enekoaxpe @youyanggu and

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      Not quite, because as I point out in the thread that's still not quite an apples-to-apples comparisonhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1306726346127671297?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Because we don't routinely test for influenza in every person who gets symptoms in a normal year, we use hospital coding and excess fatalities to ESTIMATE the total number of infections and deaths This pushes the IFR UP
      Show this thread
      4:36 PM - 20 Sep 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Eneko Axpe
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Eneko Axpe‏ @enekoaxpe 20 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu and

          In any case, do you think Dr Fauci got it wrong too?https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html …

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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