I'd say it was testing related. Too little of it initially. But when are you asking about?
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Thx for reply! Asking about big peak in March-April. There are explanations for infectivity (mass transit, population density), but not for lethality. The testing issue might well explain failure to contain, but I still wonder re lethality. Hence my question re strain type
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If you didn't test enough or only looked at pneumonia or fever+X or travellers, your denominator is small (misses mild, presympt & local cases) and the ratio of death among those infected (=testing positive) looks higher than it likely is
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Yes I agree! We are in a much better position now to gauge the extent and severity of the pandemic than in March. There is a significant difference in the mortality rate in New York City to the rest of the US though, which is independent of testing rates?
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I don't think so
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Replying to @MackayIM @JeanmarcBenoit and
IFR in NYC in March/April was 1-1.5%. IFR in the US is ~0.6% in March-May, which *includes* the NYC data. So US minus NYC is likely lower than 0.6%. I would personally consider that to be significant. And this is independent of testing.
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Replying to @youyanggu @MackayIM and
Our paper almost entirely explains this difference - it is due to the age breakdown of those infected. In NYC, there were a relatively large proportion of infections in the elderly, compared to Utah (for example) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …pic.twitter.com/ddIc0RJxx0
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Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu and
Eneko Axpe Retweeted Eneko Axpe
More than 6 months ago, IFR was already estimated to be 0.3% - 1.0%. Some important professors and editors said at that time that COVID-19 was >35x deadlier than flu (they were comparing CFR to IFR). Reality is that COVID-19 seems to be ~6x deadlier than flu.https://twitter.com/enekoaxpe/status/1237968865822294018 …
Eneko Axpe added,
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Replying to @enekoaxpe @youyanggu and
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
Nah you've got the wrong number for influenza IFR, that's the CDC's estimate of the symptomatic CFRhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1306726340226215936?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
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Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu and
If IFR for flu is ~0.05% as you point out, this would mean COVID-19 is ~12x deadlier than flu. Check this out though
pic.twitter.com/8qj3WH5uRk
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Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
Not quite, because as I point out in the thread that's still not quite an apples-to-apples comparisonhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1306726346127671297?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
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Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu and
In any case, do you think Dr Fauci got it wrong too?https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html …
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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