No it isn't.
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Prof MacKay, wondering what your opinion is on high case fatality rate in New York City - what proportion of it would you say relates to the strain of virus? I recall seeing a virus strain map - presumably this is a testable hypothesis?
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I'd say it was testing related. Too little of it initially. But when are you asking about?
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Thx for reply! Asking about big peak in March-April. There are explanations for infectivity (mass transit, population density), but not for lethality. The testing issue might well explain failure to contain, but I still wonder re lethality. Hence my question re strain type
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If you didn't test enough or only looked at pneumonia or fever+X or travellers, your denominator is small (misses mild, presympt & local cases) and the ratio of death among those infected (=testing positive) looks higher than it likely is
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Yes I agree! We are in a much better position now to gauge the extent and severity of the pandemic than in March. There is a significant difference in the mortality rate in New York City to the rest of the US though, which is independent of testing rates?
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I don't think so
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Replying to @MackayIM @JeanmarcBenoit and
IFR in NYC in March/April was 1-1.5%. IFR in the US is ~0.6% in March-May, which *includes* the NYC data. So US minus NYC is likely lower than 0.6%. I would personally consider that to be significant. And this is independent of testing.
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Replying to @youyanggu @MackayIM and
Our paper almost entirely explains this difference - it is due to the age breakdown of those infected. In NYC, there were a relatively large proportion of infections in the elderly, compared to Utah (for example) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …pic.twitter.com/ddIc0RJxx0
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Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu and
Of those tested back in the beginning of this.
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Depends! Some of these studies were run more recently, but since there isn't much good longitudinal data it's hard to say that the studies are comparable. We are trying to look at this using Swedish data, which is biased but longitudinal
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Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu and
In relation to March-April, testing numbers were low and we know all the issues around slow rollout. I have little faith that there was a realistic denominator for death. Shame all curves aren't offered in a version adjusted for seroprevalence https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.page …pic.twitter.com/ynV7n3vfHy
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