The problem with the question of whether COVID-19 is as bad as the 1918 influenza pandemic: how could we really know the answer?pic.twitter.com/1Jd8UVvZzG
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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The problem with the question of whether COVID-19 is as bad as the 1918 influenza pandemic: how could we really know the answer?pic.twitter.com/1Jd8UVvZzG
The point is not that the 1918 pandemic wasn't a global tragedy, it's that comparisons are fraught when the world has changed so drastically in 100 years
The better comparisons of 1957 and 1968 are meanwhile conveniently forgotten.
I think about them quite a bit. Even with the advances of the last 5-6 decades, we're fast approaching the same death toll as those pandemics. Imagine how many people would've already died if we only had 1957 treatments
Correcting for population, we’re only fast approaching half their death tolls (there are 2x as many people now). What justifies the current lockdown measures that weren’t even considered then?
Yes, but those were death tolls over two years. We're only 8 months into COVID-19 and already at 50% of the total deaths I'm not justifying anything, just pointing out that the comparison makes COVID-19 even more worrying on most fronts
So, at worst, it will be as bad in terms of mortality, except that we will have piled on by destroying lives and livelihoods to no good end on top of it for no purpose. We had better sense 52 years ago.
Not at all. Those are deaths WITH all of the interventions. Without the interventions, we might expect a vastly higher death toll even with the advances in medical science over the last few decades
In the same sense, NPIs 'spread' money they don't 'lose' money
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