The CDC estimates that the SYMPTOMATIC CASE-FATALITY RATE (CFR) for influenza is ~0.1% The estimate of the INFECTION-FATALITY RATE (IFR) is closer to ~0.05%, due to asymptomatic flu casespic.twitter.com/YK4M8qH19M
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The POPULATION IFR of COVID-19 is (very crudely) 0.5-1%, although this varies enormously with the age breakdown of people infected by the disease So, about 10-20x higher than seasonal influenza
But EVEN THIS isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. The IFR of COVID-19 is calculated by dividing CONFIRMED DEATHS by ESTIMATED INFECTIONS The IFR of influenza is calcualted by dividing MODELED DEATHS by MODELED INFECTIONS
Because we don't routinely test for influenza in every person who gets symptoms in a normal year, we use hospital coding and excess fatalities to ESTIMATE the total number of infections and deaths This pushes the IFR UP
But EVEN USING THIS HIGHER FIGURE FOR INFLUENZA we see that the IFR of flu is 10-20x lower than COVID-19 fin.
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