I very much doubt that I would be surprised:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …
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I said it before, your work is awesome. But there is more below the surface of that 'reckless strategy' and that is the point. There is a critical point where there is no coming back. We are way past it.
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I do not understand what you are saying
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In a nutshell, in a 2-class system where total supression is (because of RL, mind you) not possible. There is a threshold for time t until the diminishing returns of having a miracle vaccine that can be applied in a single day to the entire population with effectivity 100%.
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Replying to @federicolois @GidMK and
Because over time other (even imperfect) isolation strategies will minimize the death burden for slowing down through transition to endemicity. So waiting is a good strategy, but it has huge limits. And the bigger problem is that over an uncertain horizon, there is no coming back
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It seems that you're assuming that all containment strategies will eventually fail entirely. That doesn't seem well-supported at all
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The keyword is eventually. What I am saying is that all containment strategies are imperfect. The imperfection is exactly the problem. For every containment it exists a time t, where not even a miracle vaccine will be a match for an stratified burn it out (sweden like) strategy.
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But Sweden isn't burning it out? They have restrictions that are (at this point) more stringent than many places in the world!
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I would pretty much trade you the 'stringent restrictions' of Sweden for mine any day. On paper even Sweden was imperfect. (dont trust that level of calibration could be even possible in RL, but who knows, I may be surprised).
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Ok, but my point is that they are definitely not 'burning out' towards a traditional level of 'community immunity', they have long-term restrictions that are still in place
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Also, of course, Sweden notoriously did not succeed in their strategy of protecting the elderly
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True, but they could have pulled a Madrid or mind you an Argentina (god forbid). All-in-all, they didnt do that bad either.
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