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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      Ok, so now that we can agree. Can we go into the theoretical realm for a minute? Let's do the exercise, take the model you trust the most. Parametrize it such as you have a 2 class system with 2 pools (vulnerable and healthy) and then isolate the vulnerable. You will be surprised

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      I very much doubt that I would be surprised:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      I said it before, your work is awesome. But there is more below the surface of that 'reckless strategy' and that is the point. There is a critical point where there is no coming back. We are way past it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      I do not understand what you are saying

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      In a nutshell, in a 2-class system where total supression is (because of RL, mind you) not possible. There is a threshold for time t until the diminishing returns of having a miracle vaccine that can be applied in a single day to the entire population with effectivity 100%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @GidMK and

      Because over time other (even imperfect) isolation strategies will minimize the death burden for slowing down through transition to endemicity. So waiting is a good strategy, but it has huge limits. And the bigger problem is that over an uncertain horizon, there is no coming back

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      It seems that you're assuming that all containment strategies will eventually fail entirely. That doesn't seem well-supported at all

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      The keyword is eventually. What I am saying is that all containment strategies are imperfect. The imperfection is exactly the problem. For every containment it exists a time t, where not even a miracle vaccine will be a match for an stratified burn it out (sweden like) strategy.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      But Sweden isn't burning it out? They have restrictions that are (at this point) more stringent than many places in the world!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      I would pretty much trade you the 'stringent restrictions' of Sweden for mine any day. On paper even Sweden was imperfect. (dont trust that level of calibration could be even possible in RL, but who knows, I may be surprised).

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      Ok, but my point is that they are definitely not 'burning out' towards a traditional level of 'community immunity', they have long-term restrictions that are still in place

      9:44 PM - 16 Sep 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

          Also, of course, Sweden notoriously did not succeed in their strategy of protecting the elderly

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

          True, but they could have pulled a Madrid or mind you an Argentina (god forbid). All-in-all, they didnt do that bad either.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

          If our model is correct, they are not far though. Certainly waaay closer than Madrid, Catalunya. Or London and Paris with some 'reservations', as we are missing a key measurement which disambiguate fittings for those 2, we assumed a similar path as Madrid, who knows if correct.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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