It also could be lower, what guarantees can you make about the state of the system over time if it is not based on the total energy of the system? On an epidemic state, energy is high, transitions are high probability. Cannot be worse.
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If restrictions reduce the overall number of infections substantially to the point where a vaccine is produced, it could be very substantially worse. This is the problem with purely theoretical models
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IF, big thing. Has it worked so far?
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Well, no. It's a novel disease. None of this has happened before, or at least in living memory
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Ok, so now that we can agree. Can we go into the theoretical realm for a minute? Let's do the exercise, take the model you trust the most. Parametrize it such as you have a 2 class system with 2 pools (vulnerable and healthy) and then isolate the vulnerable. You will be surprised
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I very much doubt that I would be surprised:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …
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I said it before, your work is awesome. But there is more below the surface of that 'reckless strategy' and that is the point. There is a critical point where there is no coming back. We are way past it.
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I do not understand what you are saying
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In a nutshell, in a 2-class system where total supression is (because of RL, mind you) not possible. There is a threshold for time t until the diminishing returns of having a miracle vaccine that can be applied in a single day to the entire population with effectivity 100%.
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Replying to @federicolois @GidMK and
Because over time other (even imperfect) isolation strategies will minimize the death burden for slowing down through transition to endemicity. So waiting is a good strategy, but it has huge limits. And the bigger problem is that over an uncertain horizon, there is no coming back
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It seems that you're assuming that all containment strategies will eventually fail entirely. That doesn't seem well-supported at all
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The keyword is eventually. What I am saying is that all containment strategies are imperfect. The imperfection is exactly the problem. For every containment it exists a time t, where not even a miracle vaccine will be a match for an stratified burn it out (sweden like) strategy.
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But Sweden isn't burning it out? They have restrictions that are (at this point) more stringent than many places in the world!
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