Of the lots of scenarios, which one accounted for the deaths accrued by the losses (not economical, direct deaths) of waiting until we can know for certain if the vaccine works? Glad to hear about the number of incorrect ways. If you can elaborate.
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The main issue, as I mentioned, is the assumption that 'community immunity' is a) a homogenous state b) the 'end' of a pandemic and c) possible to reach. The other errors stem largely from these mistakes
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a) I have never assumed it is a homogeneous state -> that is why it is a meta-stable state after all (by definition). b) 'pandemics' end. Whether by extintion of the host, the virus or because of co-adaptation. c) See b and a.
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If it's not a homogenous state then the central premise is flawed - endemicity could result in much higher infection rates among vulnerable populations over time
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It also could be lower, what guarantees can you make about the state of the system over time if it is not based on the total energy of the system? On an epidemic state, energy is high, transitions are high probability. Cannot be worse.
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If restrictions reduce the overall number of infections substantially to the point where a vaccine is produced, it could be very substantially worse. This is the problem with purely theoretical models
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IF, big thing. Has it worked so far?
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Well, no. It's a novel disease. None of this has happened before, or at least in living memory
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Ok, so now that we can agree. Can we go into the theoretical realm for a minute? Let's do the exercise, take the model you trust the most. Parametrize it such as you have a 2 class system with 2 pools (vulnerable and healthy) and then isolate the vulnerable. You will be surprised
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I very much doubt that I would be surprised:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …
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(I should specify that I am one of the authors on this paper)
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I already knew that :)
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