This is, I think, one of the issues of people with no experience in infectious disease treating the pandemic as a purely theoretical exercise. There are hundreds of externalities that a very simple mathematical model does not capture
Well, no. It's a novel disease. None of this has happened before, or at least in living memory
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Ok, so now that we can agree. Can we go into the theoretical realm for a minute? Let's do the exercise, take the model you trust the most. Parametrize it such as you have a 2 class system with 2 pools (vulnerable and healthy) and then isolate the vulnerable. You will be surprised
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I very much doubt that I would be surprised:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …
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