Is it? In the real world (not a mathematical formula) treatments are improving, vaccines being developed, medicine is moving very quickly. I would much rather get COVID-19 today than March 2020, for example
If restrictions reduce the overall number of infections substantially to the point where a vaccine is produced, it could be very substantially worse. This is the problem with purely theoretical models
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IF, big thing. Has it worked so far?
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Well, no. It's a novel disease. None of this has happened before, or at least in living memory
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