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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      I think the main problem is that there are many gradations of "metastable/endemic" with hundreds of possible causes, so grouping it together while in a mathematical sense might be reasonable in an epidemiological sense is less than ideal

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

      Saying "we will eventually reach a metastable point" presupposes a discrete definition, which obscures the reality that this could range from very low disease transmission at low cost to common and large outbreaks that are not themselves epidemics

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      It may be for how you approach epidemiologically speaking a mitigation strategy of such behavior, but for the potential of causing epidemic behaviors it is pretty clear. The question is on average to distinguish if the burden of one of the other is that different?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @GidMK and

      What I am trying to say, is from the dynamic point of view they are not that different when averaged over a long enough timeframe (say a year). The loss of life is comparable if you have a single outbreak or many small ones.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      Is it? In the real world (not a mathematical formula) treatments are improving, vaccines being developed, medicine is moving very quickly. I would much rather get COVID-19 today than March 2020, for example

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

      By this time next year, there is a very good chance that we will have some form of widespread vaccination. While this may still lead to endemic disease, the likelihood is that it would still drive deaths down substantially

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

      This is, I think, one of the issues of people with no experience in infectious disease treating the pandemic as a purely theoretical exercise. There are hundreds of externalities that a very simple mathematical model does not capture

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      Maybe I have no experience. I want to learn. I will ask 2 questions: - What if the vaccinne doesn't happen? What's are the expert exit strategies? - If it happens, can you guarantee here and now to me, that a vaccine in April will be the optimal course of action?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      - Lots of scenarios have been proposed - Nope I'm not saying there is one optimal course of action, just that the initial thread is incorrect in a number of ways

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      Of the lots of scenarios, which one accounted for the deaths accrued by the losses (not economical, direct deaths) of waiting until we can know for certain if the vaccine works? Glad to hear about the number of incorrect ways. If you can elaborate.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      The main issue, as I mentioned, is the assumption that 'community immunity' is a) a homogenous state b) the 'end' of a pandemic and c) possible to reach. The other errors stem largely from these mistakes

      8:56 PM - 16 Sep 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

          a) I have never assumed it is a homogeneous state -> that is why it is a meta-stable state after all (by definition). b) 'pandemics' end. Whether by extintion of the host, the virus or because of co-adaptation. c) See b and a.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

          If it's not a homogenous state then the central premise is flawed - endemicity could result in much higher infection rates among vulnerable populations over time

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

          For example, one potential consequence of long-term endemicity is infections being more common in elderly populations (as with influenza) meaning reaching this state faster could in fact result in far more deaths than the alternative

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

          Let me rephrase it to understand. So, because over the long-term a certain amount of people will be infected (say N) over time T. If we push T over the infinitum we would be guaranteeing less deaths? How so?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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