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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @ProcessNamed @IngoHeuschkel and

      Community immunity = endemicity = metastable state where only random fluctuations are possible but no epidemics (not enough energy in the system for it to happen).

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      That's certainly not a common definition. Anyway, it's certainly false to suggest that the two options are endemic disease or not

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      Non common, true. It is an energy based definition which happens to be useful mathematically to describe the behavior that happens when a transmissible disease is regularly found among particular people or in a certain area and also subjected to low energy conditions ...

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @GidMK and

      or better described as a state of equilibrium of the system. The system is theoretically unstable (small outbreaks here or there), but so long-lived as for any practical purpose to be considered stable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @GidMK and

      As I see it there are only 3 potential energy states: latent/extinct (no energy, different but for all uses and purposes here they are the same), epidemic or metastable/endemic. Am I missing any other?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      I think the main problem is that there are many gradations of "metastable/endemic" with hundreds of possible causes, so grouping it together while in a mathematical sense might be reasonable in an epidemiological sense is less than ideal

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

      Saying "we will eventually reach a metastable point" presupposes a discrete definition, which obscures the reality that this could range from very low disease transmission at low cost to common and large outbreaks that are not themselves epidemics

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      It may be for how you approach epidemiologically speaking a mitigation strategy of such behavior, but for the potential of causing epidemic behaviors it is pretty clear. The question is on average to distinguish if the burden of one of the other is that different?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @GidMK and

      What I am trying to say, is from the dynamic point of view they are not that different when averaged over a long enough timeframe (say a year). The loss of life is comparable if you have a single outbreak or many small ones.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

      Is it? In the real world (not a mathematical formula) treatments are improving, vaccines being developed, medicine is moving very quickly. I would much rather get COVID-19 today than March 2020, for example

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

      By this time next year, there is a very good chance that we will have some form of widespread vaccination. While this may still lead to endemic disease, the likelihood is that it would still drive deaths down substantially

      5:49 PM - 16 Sep 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

          This is, I think, one of the issues of people with no experience in infectious disease treating the pandemic as a purely theoretical exercise. There are hundreds of externalities that a very simple mathematical model does not capture

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @IngoHeuschkel @StephenBDugmore

          Maybe I have no experience. I want to learn. I will ask 2 questions: - What if the vaccinne doesn't happen? What's are the expert exit strategies? - If it happens, can you guarantee here and now to me, that a vaccine in April will be the optimal course of action?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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