This is either the most absurd nonsense I've seen about COVID-19 for a while It centers on a simple point: is COVID-19 more fatal than influenza?https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1303024247510503424 …
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Health Nerd Retweeted Stephen McIntyre
This is either the most absurd nonsense I've seen about COVID-19 for a while It centers on a simple point: is COVID-19 more fatal than influenza?https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1303024247510503424 …
Health Nerd added,
Health Nerd Retweeted Stephen McIntyre
The argument given in this piece is that the CDC mistakenly told the U.S. government that COVID-19 was 10x more fatal than influenza because they misunderstood an IFR as a CFR This is simply not truehttps://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1303026188714090496?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
The article first cites a NEJM editorial that talks about an 0.1% CFR for influenza, and then references a WHO document that apparently states that this is the IFR, not CFR, of the flupic.twitter.com/7fh7r9nNzm
The article then goes on to claim numerous times that 0.1% is the IFR of seasonal influenza, citing the WHO every time This is not at all what this WHO document sayspic.twitter.com/amBae3D8Ud
What the WHO actually said was that seasonal influenza has an IFR that is "usually well below 0.1%" Now, this is a very vague statement, but it is clearly wrong to cite this and then say that the IFR is 0.1%pic.twitter.com/lqXui4t7h9
The piece then goes on to make any number of erroneous statements, but most of the argument stems from this one complete and total misquotation of the evidence
This, for example, is absolute gibberish. You cannot simply extrapolate a proportional figure to a total death toll - the estimate of 800,000 deaths if COVID-19 were 10x more deadly than influenza is only true if the same number of people were infectedpic.twitter.com/Mbei2BdTop
Interestingly enough, if we use the CDC's estimate of deaths/symptomatic cases from the 17/18 influenza season, and compare to that of COVID-19, we find that the lethality is almost exactly 10x higher: 66,000/44,000,000 compared with 189,000/6,000,000
Broadly speaking, ~0.1% IS the CFR of seasonal influenza, as per both the WHO and the CDC, who calculate this figure based on symptomatic infections inferred from ICD coding https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html …
More importantly, when we compare apples to apples in terms of mortality figures, there is no doubt that COVID-19 is orders of magnitude more fatal than influenza per infectionhttps://medium.com/@gidmk/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-than-influenza-69b6628e69f2 …
The number estimated for Influenza is quoted as the "Population IFR" by some sources. Does this mean actual IFR is higher?
I thought, based on your own work, that the answer depends on age. For some it is less fatal, for others much more fatal.
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