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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Stephen McIntyre

      This is either the most absurd nonsense I've seen about COVID-19 for a while It centers on a simple point: is COVID-19 more fatal than influenza?https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1303024247510503424 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Stephen McIntyre @ClimateAudit
      New article in journal published by Cambridge Univ Press says that testimony to House Oversight Committee in March 2020 mixed up case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) for influenza, resulting in major error. (I report this w/o parsing) https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/7ACD87D8FD2237285EB667BB28DCC6E9/S1935789320002980a.pdf/public_health_lessons_learned_from_biases_in_coronavirus_mortality_overestimation.pdf … pic.twitter.com/FQ8XGCRjjY
      Show this thread
      7 replies 6 retweets 31 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Stephen McIntyre

      The argument given in this piece is that the CDC mistakenly told the U.S. government that COVID-19 was 10x more fatal than influenza because they misunderstood an IFR as a CFR This is simply not truehttps://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1303026188714090496?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Stephen McIntyre @ClimateAudit
      3/ Brown observed that New England Journal article, just prior to House testimony, had (incorrectly) said that CFR for seasonal influenza was 0.1% whereas 0.1% is actually the value for IFR (WHO). pic.twitter.com/DNZokObDr8
      Show this thread
      11:41 PM - 8 Sep 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 5 Likes
      • Dave Johannes Richter Byron the Cosmic Goat NK Leb Laura McCall #NoMassInfection
      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

          The article first cites a NEJM editorial that talks about an 0.1% CFR for influenza, and then references a WHO document that apparently states that this is the IFR, not CFR, of the flupic.twitter.com/7fh7r9nNzm

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

          The article then goes on to claim numerous times that 0.1% is the IFR of seasonal influenza, citing the WHO every time This is not at all what this WHO document sayspic.twitter.com/amBae3D8Ud

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

          What the WHO actually said was that seasonal influenza has an IFR that is "usually well below 0.1%" Now, this is a very vague statement, but it is clearly wrong to cite this and then say that the IFR is 0.1%pic.twitter.com/lqXui4t7h9

          2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

          The piece then goes on to make any number of erroneous statements, but most of the argument stems from this one complete and total misquotation of the evidence

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

          This, for example, is absolute gibberish. You cannot simply extrapolate a proportional figure to a total death toll - the estimate of 800,000 deaths if COVID-19 were 10x more deadly than influenza is only true if the same number of people were infectedpic.twitter.com/Mbei2BdTop

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

          Interestingly enough, if we use the CDC's estimate of deaths/symptomatic cases from the 17/18 influenza season, and compare to that of COVID-19, we find that the lethality is almost exactly 10x higher: 66,000/44,000,000 compared with 189,000/6,000,000

          2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

          Broadly speaking, ~0.1% IS the CFR of seasonal influenza, as per both the WHO and the CDC, who calculate this figure based on symptomatic infections inferred from ICD coding https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html …

          2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Sep 2020

          More importantly, when we compare apples to apples in terms of mortality figures, there is no doubt that COVID-19 is orders of magnitude more fatal than influenza per infectionhttps://medium.com/@gidmk/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-than-influenza-69b6628e69f2 …

          2 replies 7 retweets 28 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation

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