The study is here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub#tbl0015 … Already up to an Altmetric of 2,543, the highest ever for the journal it's inpic.twitter.com/9GGjp7q8Gg
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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The study is here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub#tbl0015 … Already up to an Altmetric of 2,543, the highest ever for the journal it's inpic.twitter.com/9GGjp7q8Gg
The authors randomly assigned people to either get treatment as usual or calcifediol, which is a product of vitamin D metabolism, and then checked how many went into ICU or died in the two groups
The findings were, to put it bluntly, astonishing Of the intervention group, only 1/50 patients went to ICU Of the control, 13/50 went to ICU, 2 of whom died So calcifediol reduced ICU admission by ~90%!pic.twitter.com/h9hSt4cL11
However, it doesn't take long to see some major caveats to this research Firstly, it was not blinded. Treating clinicians - who were the ones in charge of sending a patient to ICU - knew who was getting the treatment and who wasn't
There was also no placebo control, again introducing a potential source of bias into the arrangement On top of this, the sample was very small (n=76)
Now, all of this is fine, because you see this was a PILOT trial The actual big research project is ongoing, and will involve >10x as many people!pic.twitter.com/cHPCo0z4P1
But there are some issues in the study that don't have anything to do with the pilot nature For example, this flow diagrampic.twitter.com/J3c0GQSSQC
This diagram implies that of the patients who were screened for the study (PCR+, pneumonia on radiograph, clinical infection) 100% were enrolled 100% of those patients were randomized 100% took the treatment as assigned 100% were followed up until the end of the study
Now, I don't know if that is entirely unheard of, but thus far I have never seen such perfect numbers. Even other in-hospital trials of drugs for COVID-19 have a handful of patients drop out (or at least 1 patient screened who was not eligible!)
Perhaps, but 100% screened were eligible, consented, and stayed until the end of the trial with no loss to follow-up. As I said, I've never seen anything even remotely like that before
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