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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

      As if the alternative does not require careful long-term thinking? What an odd thing to say. You seem to be arguing that no one not using your terminology could engage in complexity, which is an absurd and nonsensical thing to say

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

      What I am saying is this: People make the mistake of thinking that every reduction in transmission is beneficial for reducing COVID mortality/morbidity. Immunity effects make this false; there is no monotonicity. What will happen in the future affects what we should do now.

      1 reply 3 retweets 20 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

      That rests on a presumption on long-term immunity. It is also, of course, a very odd strawman not only of my position but of the majority of epidemiological thought

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @WesPegden @treadoman

      Also, worth noting that without a fulsome examination of long-term sequelae of COVID-19, the argument that immunity is largely without cost in certain populations is by its very nature a spurious one

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

      These ideas do not depend on believing that there is a 100% chance that there is 100% perfect immunity over the long term. They do depend on believing that the cost borne by infection by different populations are different, one of the most well-established features of COVID.1/

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
    6. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @GidMK @treadoman

      By comparison, the assumptions underlying attempts to contain or eliminate COVID are far more speculative. I am fine with someone laying out a quantitative argument that the level of uncertainty we have regarding immunity, etc., means HI is a worse choice. Haven't seen one yet.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

      Many people have made such arguments. This is in addition, of course, to the very large death toll that such immunity requires

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

      Really? I am looking for a quantitative analysis showing that in some particular real-world situation (say, in the U.S.) containment is likely to succeed at preventing more death and suffering than strategies based on HI. Can you share a reference please?

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

      Oh apologies I misunderstood your request. While I wouldn't be surprised if someone has done this, I haven't seen a paper explicitly modelling such a scenario

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @WesPegden @treadoman

      Although I should note I have also not seen someone actually quantitatively make the opposite point - that it is worse. The main argument (that I've seen) is some vague false dichotomy about 'the economy' that ignores any impact the pandemic itself has on the economy

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @WesPegden @treadoman

      It is also probably worth noting that this sort of argument rarely takes into account the fact that longer delays allow treatment development. I'd much rather get COVID-19 in 2021 than 2020!

      3:12 PM - 7 Sep 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

          Wes Pegden Retweeted Wes Pegden

          Yes the benefits of delay must be weighed against what can be gained by using the time/compliance we have now to affect the infected population. These discussions aren't happening enough. Also, you might rather have it in summer than winter:https://twitter.com/WesPegden/status/1295752780792115206 …

          Wes Pegden added,

          Wes Pegden @WesPegden
          🧵I talk a lot about the mistake people make thinking it is always safer to err on the side of extreme action. Here is a simple thought experiment to illustrate this point. Imagine you are given a magic wand which, if you wave it, will reduce COVID transmission by... 1/11
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
          Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

          Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

          It is ~possible~ that delaying transmissions may cause a larger outbreak, but given that COVID-19 has not displayed a very strong seasonal trend thus far it is quite unlikelyhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1302880415548542979?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
          One of the most fascinating things during this pandemic has been watching people create theories that are TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE given the data at hand and then use that to argue that they are the MOST LIKELY explanation
          Show this thread
          2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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