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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

      I think this is a silly way of thinking about things. An analogous proposal would be: Academics proposing responses for COVID which will be economically ruinous for many people should give up their jobs. Also: Ignoring HI threatens to cause more COVID deaths, not less.

      2 replies 1 retweet 24 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

      Ignoring herd immunity is a nonsense phrase, and academics are some of the most at-risk jobs so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

      I suggest you tweet out that second claim on its own to get wider feedback on that (as a fellow academic let me say I consider it completely absurd!). As for your second point: when I say ignoring herd immunity,...

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @GidMK @treadoman

      I mean ignoring any strategies to reduce mortality and morbidity which acknowledge the role of immunity in the epidemic. Any time HI ends up playing a role (as it has already) and we have declined to enact policies intended to affect how this happens, we have excess death.

      1 reply 3 retweets 19 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

      Again, that's still mostly a nonsense statement. What are you actually saying?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

      Are you actually not familiar with any public health strategies which would aim to take advantage of immunity effects to reduce final COVID mortality/morbidity?

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

      Having looked through your previous threads, I see what you're trying to say. The mistake is in using the word 'immunity', which is still not demonstrable long-term for COVID-19. I would suggest 'mitigation' or similar, because it is less wrong

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @WesPegden @treadoman

      As to a mitigation strategy, I'm a co-author on a paper that explicitly argues that in the case of an uncontrolled outbreak mitigating the impact on high risk populations would reduce the death tollhttps://www.medrxiv.org/node/94489.external-links.html …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @WesPegden @treadoman

      However, this is not a "herd immunity" approach, and still requires a very substantial loss of life/morbidity

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

      It is important to explicitly acknowledge the roles of immunity (even when imperfect), because it means that the impacts of our actions are no longer a monotone function of our "effort", which means our responses require careful long-term thinking.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

      As if the alternative does not require careful long-term thinking? What an odd thing to say. You seem to be arguing that no one not using your terminology could engage in complexity, which is an absurd and nonsensical thing to say

      1:14 PM - 7 Sep 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 7 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @treadoman

          What I am saying is this: People make the mistake of thinking that every reduction in transmission is beneficial for reducing COVID mortality/morbidity. Immunity effects make this false; there is no monotonicity. What will happen in the future affects what we should do now.

          1 reply 3 retweets 20 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
          Replying to @WesPegden @treadoman

          That rests on a presumption on long-term immunity. It is also, of course, a very odd strawman not only of my position but of the majority of epidemiological thought

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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