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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Nikhil Karkhanis‏ @nikhil_k56 6 Sep 2020
      Replying to @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1 @GidMK

      It's not a specious argument. Many countries are similarly recategorizing their death diagnosis. I have already had a discussion with you on this topic some days ago. It makes a big difference to the IFR and the justification for NPI measures.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Sep 2020
      Replying to @nikhil_k56 @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

      Which countries are doing so?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Nikhil Karkhanis‏ @nikhil_k56 6 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/britain-says-it-overcounted-coronavirus-death-toll-by-5377/2020/08/13/f6f171a6-dce0-11ea-b4f1-25b762cdbbf4_story.html#click=https://t.co/3mGH1c3hmK …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @nikhil_k56 @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

      That article misunderstands what happened in the UK. They had several counts of death, using different terminology, none of which have changed. They just decided to use a different one for official reporting

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Nikhil Karkhanis‏ @nikhil_k56 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

      No, the article very clearly says that they added a 28 day cutoff for Covid positivity. Covid is a lethal virus for only a very specific cohort, i.e. elderly and with comorbidities. For the rest it is a mild infection, no worse than many other diseases.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Nikhil Karkhanis‏ @nikhil_k56 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @nikhil_k56 @GidMK and

      The world drastically over reacted due to panic, and only the Swedes kept their heads and followed a rational policy. Lockdown effects are going to be much worse than Covid itself.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. PriyankaPulla‏Verified account @PriyankaPulla 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @nikhil_k56 @GidMK @TRRaju1

      Can you please show me the source of the data for that graph? I'd like to see the data that suggests that a minority of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden are directly due to COVID-19. Pretty sure even the British recategorisation hasn't led to any such conclusion.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Nikhil Karkhanis‏ @nikhil_k56 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @PriyankaPulla @GidMK @TRRaju1

      Nikhil Karkhanis Retweeted Andreas Lönnmo 🏳️‍🌈

      https://twitter.com/JarvsoLonnmo/status/1302593580012371969?s=19 … The source is right there in the thread. Unfortunately in Swedish, but has been explained by others.

      Nikhil Karkhanis added,

      Andreas Lönnmo 🏳️‍🌈 @JarvsoLonnmo
      Replying to @craniosurgeon @jhnhellstrom and 2 others
      You can read the report from ”Östergötland” Unfortunately not translated to English but Google translate will du the trick. This report reflects death outside hospitals https://www.regionostergotland.se/contentassets/621708f279b94b0e84fc3e4e2f5a337e/dodsfall-med-covid-19-pa-sarskilda-boenden-eller-i-eget-hem-i-ostergotland.pdf …
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @nikhil_k56 @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

      Well that source contradicts the graph, according to Google Translate at least. It's also only about a tiny subset of care home patients in one part of Sweden

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Nikhil Karkhanis‏ @nikhil_k56 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

      They have both data, in hospital and out of hospital. Their point is that Covid on it's own rarely kills. You need to be elderly, and have comorbidities.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
      Replying to @nikhil_k56 @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

      That's incorrect. Our meta-analysis showed remarkably high death rates even in middle age, with an exponential increasehttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …

      12:20 AM - 7 Sep 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Atomsk's Sanakan Loretta Torrago
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Nikhil Karkhanis‏ @nikhil_k56 7 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

          This paper gives an IFR of 0.4 at age 55, 1.3% at 65, so I don't see how you conclude remarkably high middle aged mortality.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 7 Sep 2020
          Replying to @nikhil_k56 @PriyankaPulla @TRRaju1

          That's extremely high. The death rate for 50-64 from influenza estimated by the CDC is ~0.03%, which is about 13 times lower than the IFR for 55 year olds and 40 times lower than the IFR for 65 year olds from covid

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. white wolf #KBF 😊 🙂‏ @dunboy7 22 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @nikhil_k56 @PriyankaPulla

          pic.twitter.com/LI7cK4j1wr

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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