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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 4 Sep 2020

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Ali H. Mokdad

      We don't have projections beyond Nov 1 because we want to avoid misleading headlines (like below). No one knows what's going to happen in 2+ months. Forecasting certainty when there is very little can undermine public trust in the scientific community.https://twitter.com/AliHMokdad/status/1301671920916525056 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Ali H. Mokdad @AliHMokdad
      .@IHME_UW now projects 410,451 #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1st, this is about 224,000 deaths from now until the end of the year. These are not numbers or statistics but family member, friends, and loved ones. 1/14 https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend …
      Show this thread
      60 replies 258 retweets 1,385 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 4 Sep 2020

      Below is a comparison of our daily deaths forecasts (http://covid19-projections.com  in blue).pic.twitter.com/lmFE7xrEvo

      22 replies 36 retweets 173 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 4 Sep 2020

      If I had to make an educated guess, I'd say that a 95% confidence interval is 210-300k deaths by the end of 2020. ~250k deaths would be a reasonable "most likely" estimate. That's currently far outside of IHME's range.pic.twitter.com/nWyjfcM0VK

      14 replies 26 retweets 164 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 Sep 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu

      I agree that this is a much more plausible range

      5:37 PM - 4 Sep 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Youyang Gu Thatcher Ulrich GrepMed
      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

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