We don't have projections beyond Nov 1 because we want to avoid misleading headlines (like below). No one knows what's going to happen in 2+ months. Forecasting certainty when there is very little can undermine public trust in the scientific community.https://twitter.com/AliHMokdad/status/1301671920916525056 …
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Below is a comparison of our daily deaths forecasts (http://covid19-projections.com in blue).pic.twitter.com/lmFE7xrEvo
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If I had to make an educated guess, I'd say that a 95% confidence interval is 210-300k deaths by the end of 2020. ~250k deaths would be a reasonable "most likely" estimate. That's currently far outside of IHME's range.pic.twitter.com/nWyjfcM0VK
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Replying to @youyanggu
I agree that this is a much more plausible range
5:37 PM - 4 Sep 2020
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