Quite, and as someone who runs a (fairly fragile) business I have much the same experience when people on secure pay / benefits lecture me on how easy it is to just shut down or severely curtail my business for X months.
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Replying to @ThadMichaels
Sure. Any good public health policy in this arena includes the economic side, trying to minimize the harm of any restrictions. The idea that it is an either/or of lockdown/no restrictions is ludicrous
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Replying to @GidMK
Yes, it's not a binary choice. IMO a lot of people are underestimating the 2nd-order social / health effects of lockdown's economic impact. We're in new territory, even harder to model than the pandemic itself. My fear is we have done far more (non-Covid) damage than we realise.
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Replying to @ThadMichaels
As a counterpoint, I would point out that most people making these arguments steadfastly refuse to recognize the economic impact of the pandemic itself. It's clearly folly to presume that total government inaction would not still entail a great deal of economic ruin
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Replying to @GidMK
Yes, especially at the start + peak of an outbreak. We're almost certainly at a point now, in most countries, where the economic damage is being done mainly by the response and not the pandemic itself. eg my job can be done 100% remotely. But furlough rules are killing progress.
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Replying to @ThadMichaels
How so? In many European countries, many/most restrictions have eased. Conversely, the enormous halt in global tourism, which has little to do with local restrictions, is a primary factor in the recession
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Replying to @GidMK
In the UK, the furlough scheme was very poorly designed to incentivise not working even when capable of working in a Covid-safe way. It has sucked the life out of white collar services. The scheme is still running. Tourism patterns have a *lot* to do with govt restrictions.
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Replying to @ThadMichaels @GidMK
There are also all sorts of hidden stings in the tail of restrictions being "lifted" - local lockdowns, curfews, missed days of work while waiting for C19 test results (e.g. for a minor fever), reduced capacity in venues and on transport. We're nowhere near normal.
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Replying to @ThadMichaels
Absolutely. But there are also economic consequences to large, ongoing outbreaks. The UK lifted travel restrictions to a lot of EU locations, for example, but despite people going on holiday the numbers leaving Heathrow for the EU are still less than 1/4 of 2019
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Replying to @GidMK
Response-driven explanations: 1. Main destination (Spain) is on quarantine list. 2. All other destinations are liable to be on quarantine list with minimal notice. 3. Impossible to get insurance to cover this possibility. 4. People fear job loss / redundancy if they take leave.
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Precisely. There are risks that a pandemic entails. Some of these are directly impacted by govt, some are tangential, and some are entirely down to the actual pandemic itself
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