Lots of people have replied to this saying "but you can't expect anyone to expose their families to potential death!" and to you I say: yeshttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1301401048716775424 …
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Even at the local level, one of the driving factors in economic slowdowns is risk. It has become more difficult to get large loans where I live, for example, not due to new regulation but because the banks are less willing to lend
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I've no doubt that's part of the problem, you're right - especially when consumers + businesses stockpile cash and reduce consumption in anticipation of 2nd wave. But I think truth is that the pandemic *and* the response are both having a massive depressive effect on the economy.
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In the UK, the furlough scheme was very poorly designed to incentivise not working even when capable of working in a Covid-safe way. It has sucked the life out of white collar services. The scheme is still running. Tourism patterns have a *lot* to do with govt restrictions.
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There are also all sorts of hidden stings in the tail of restrictions being "lifted" - local lockdowns, curfews, missed days of work while waiting for C19 test results (e.g. for a minor fever), reduced capacity in venues and on transport. We're nowhere near normal.
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