1/ Time for an apology and a correction. Seems that every newspaper in the UK is (correctly) reporting that I said the risk of catching a fatal case of Covid-19 is about the same as the risk of having a bath. I did say that, but I was wrong. Details below.
-
Show this thread
-
Replying to @TimHarford
This is a brilliant thread, and I love correcting mistakes. I would point out one other statement in the piece that I don't agree with (although whether it is an error or not is open to interpretation) I don't think "very unlikely" is correctpic.twitter.com/3idk22aE9l
2 replies 1 retweet 27 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @TimHarford
Colleagues and I have run a metaregression looking at aggregated risks of death by age. The relationship is remarkably log-linear, and so obviously increases substantially with every passing yearhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …
2 replies 2 retweets 7 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @TimHarford
Based on our findings, the risk of death for a 50-year old person is 0.22% if they catch COVID-19. Now, I would argue that is quite substantial - on par with catching influenza 30 times in one year - and so not "very unlikely"
4 replies 5 retweets 19 likes
The risk of death doesn't drop to truly low levels until you get to the 20s and 30s, and even then it is not entirely negligible Anyway, this is more about language than anything else, but it did stand out to me (probably because this has become a bit of an obsession)
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.