1/ Time for an apology and a correction. Seems that every newspaper in the UK is (correctly) reporting that I said the risk of catching a fatal case of Covid-19 is about the same as the risk of having a bath. I did say that, but I was wrong. Details below.
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The risk of death doesn't drop to truly low levels until you get to the 20s and 30s, and even then it is not entirely negligible Anyway, this is more about language than anything else, but it did stand out to me (probably because this has become a bit of an obsession)
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Your comorbidities can substantially raise the risk. You can have low infection rate but high infection rates in some demographics. In the young (20-29) in France in some areas it's higher than 400 per 100 000 detected cases, if you work with them, risk is higher.
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Inversely, if you are with demographics with lover incidence and have no comorbidities your risk is even lower. Risk is very uneven. I guess it's the same thing in UK or virtually everywhere.
End of conversation
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Is that because you are thinking from a population perspective? Most people don't do that. Given a number like 0.22%, many will think that's low and won't happen to them. It's only when you give it perspective (like relating it to flu) that it becomes more meaningful.
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A 99.78% chance of surviving...does make dying sound 'very unlikely' by my standards! Not trivial in comparison to flu, fair enough, but still...
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