1/ Time for an apology and a correction. Seems that every newspaper in the UK is (correctly) reporting that I said the risk of catching a fatal case of Covid-19 is about the same as the risk of having a bath. I did say that, but I was wrong. Details below.
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Colleagues and I have run a metaregression looking at aggregated risks of death by age. The relationship is remarkably log-linear, and so obviously increases substantially with every passing yearhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …
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Based on our findings, the risk of death for a 50-year old person is 0.22% if they catch COVID-19. Now, I would argue that is quite substantial - on par with catching influenza 30 times in one year - and so not "very unlikely"
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Even if Tim's reasoning is flawless, the trouble is I _am_ over 65...
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