Quick! Quick! Herd immunity is almost here so let’s get the vaccines out without wasting time on safety trials!https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1301297514193190913 …
One key assumption, for example, is that there is little movement within society. So, for example, an SEIR model assuming fixed compartments (i.e. the first paper on Europe) falls apart if these compartments are mobile rather than fixed
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The second paper actually explicitly discusses the fact that their entire modelling approach rests on this assumption, which is an issue because of course it is not demonstrable and plausibly wrong
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We can also look at some counterfactuals that are already springing up. Many places in Spain had reached a seroprevalence >10%, some >15%, and yet they are very much experiencing a resurgence in infections right now
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