Quick! Quick! Herd immunity is almost here so let’s get the vaccines out without wasting time on safety trials!https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1301297514193190913 …
So, there are some mistakes in that blog, but broadly speaking the biggest issue with the two papers that posit very low herd immunity thresholds are the assumptions (as with many disease models)
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One key assumption, for example, is that there is little movement within society. So, for example, an SEIR model assuming fixed compartments (i.e. the first paper on Europe) falls apart if these compartments are mobile rather than fixed
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The second paper actually explicitly discusses the fact that their entire modelling approach rests on this assumption, which is an issue because of course it is not demonstrable and plausibly wrong
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