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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      4/n This is, of course, terrible - without diabetes, he'd live another ~6 years on average Still, he's not on deaths' door by any means Until he tries to cross the road, and is hit by a car

      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      5/n Greg is rushed to hospital, where despite the best efforts of the surgical team he has a cardiac arrest and dies on the table Now, we have to answer the question: what killed Greg?

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      6/n The first piece of the puzzle is diabetes. In this scenario, let's say that having diabetes doubles your risk of death if you're hit by a car For every 1,000 people without diabetes hit by cars, 5 die. With diabetes, that goes up to 10

      1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      7/n So, first time - what killed Greg?

      4 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      8/n While we wait for some votes, I'll explain how death reporting works in the US (and most other places) You first have the IMMEDIATE cause of death. Then the UNDERLYING cause, and finally COMORBIDITIES

      1 reply 2 retweets 31 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      9/n The IMMEDIATE cause of death is the thing that ultimately killed someone - they stopped breathing, their kidneys shut down, their liver gave out The UNDERLYING cause is the thing that caused the IMMEDIATE one - cancer, diabetes, alcoholism

      1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      10/n COMORBIDITIES are the things that may have contributed to the IMMEDIATE cause or the UNDERLYING one, but aren't necessarily related directly to the death

      1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      11/n Coming back to Greg, most people are correctly identifying that he died because of the car. This seems obvious - without the car, he'd have another 25 years to go! The car is the UNDERLYING cause of death

      2 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      12/n So what does that make the diabetes?

      1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      13/n Thing is, we can't entirely ignore comorbidities. We know that the diabetes, in this case, played a role in Greg's death Remember, for every 1,000 people with diabetes who get hit by cars, an extra 5 die that wouldn't if not for the diabetes!

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

      14/n So, we still classify diabetes as a comorbidity, because it's important, but it's clearly not the thing that actually killed Greg

      1:48 AM - 2 Sep 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 15 Likes
      • Bernhard Unsöld Kategorischer Imperativ lee prew Guffy Colin Gardiner Maria hauschel Corax The Raven Jari Peltomaa Veronica
      1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

          15/n Now for the big/very obvious reveal - the car is COVID-19 A 50-year-old man has a risk of about 2 in 1,000 of dying from COVID-19. For the sake of argument, let's say that doubles to 4 in 1,000 if he has diabetes

          1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

          16/n Thing is, his risk may be reduced by 0.2% if there's no diabetes, but it's reduced BY 100% if there's no COVID-19

          2 replies 7 retweets 42 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

          17/n We can see this quite clearly in the US excess mortality figures There are about 200,000 people who WOULD BE ALIVE TODAY if not for COVID-19pic.twitter.com/VFo5yjMw6s

          3 replies 4 retweets 41 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

          18/n Moreover, if you look at the CDC's reports, >95% of COVID-19 certified deaths had COVID-19 as the UNDERLYING (remember, main) cause of death In other words, COVID-19 was behind MOST IF NOT ALL of these deathspic.twitter.com/IJL4YGKO7G

          2 replies 4 retweets 33 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Sep 2020

          19/n There you have it - a simple explanation As I said, MOST COVID-19 DEATHS ARE CAUSED BY COVID-19. Fin

          6 replies 4 retweets 76 likes
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        7. End of conversation

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