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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 1 Sep 2020

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD Retweeted Vinay Prasad, MD MPH  🎙️ 📷

      Another IFR point estimate. Here from Iceland, based on 10 deaths. Variability is expected from sample to sample, population to population. Recall that the criticism of Ioannidis’ meta-analysis was the exclusion of higher yet valid IFR estimates. Also, why turn off the comments?https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1300915247176323073 …

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD added,

      Vinay Prasad, MD MPH  🎙️ 📷Verified account @VPrasadMDMPH
      I would never have guessed that IFR would become one of the most controversial topics of 2020 The IFR in today's @NEJM publication of the Iceland experience was 0.3% https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116?articleTools=true … The IFR in the preprint meta-analysis by satan was 0.27% 🤷‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/arz3cCKRvA
      Show this thread
      15 replies 35 retweets 189 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Brian Dell‏ @Brian_Dell 1 Sep 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean

      I recall @CT_Bergstrom accusing the CDC of being corrupted when it suggested IFR of 0.26%. Then Bergstrom's favorite forecaster, @youyanggu, inconveniently suggested that's indeed pretty much what this summer's IFR has been

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 1 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Brian_Dell @nataliexdean @CT_Bergstrom

      Youyang Gu Retweeted Youyang Gu

      Not quite. I said that the implied IFR is around 0.25% based on only reported deaths and lower median age of infection. True age-adjusted IFR is probably around 0.4-0.6%, and may go back up in the fall/winter.https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1291105125231144962 …

      Youyang Gu added,

      Youyang Gu @youyanggu
      Addenum #2: We only use reported deaths in our implied IFR calculations. But if states are underreporting deaths, then the implied IFR would be a lower bound on the true IFR. @WeinbergerDan and his lab have been taking a deep dive into excess deaths: https://twitter.com/WeinbergerDan/status/1289255927732895750 …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
    4. Brian Dell‏ @Brian_Dell 1 Sep 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu @nataliexdean @CT_Bergstrom

      What number is your model using for your death forecasts, if i may? I believe that's what the CDC number was meant to be used for: forecasting from end of May onwards not from start of the year

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Brian Dell‏ @Brian_Dell 1 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Brian_Dell @youyanggu and

      It strikes me as ironic that after all the complaints about the CDC's forecast, the CDC rolls over, drops its own estimate, and just cites @GidMK's IFR (in a July 10 update). Which suggests the CDC can be politically influenced... but not by the side claimed to be influencing!

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 1 Sep 2020
      Replying to @Brian_Dell @youyanggu and

      Sorry, which side of U.S. politics am I on? As an Australian it all gets very confusing

      11:57 PM - 1 Sep 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

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