Since everyone's talking about herd immunity in the United States at the moment, I thought I'd quickly run some rough calculations of the number of deaths required to get to the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 in the U.S.
-
Show this thread
-
The age-stratified IFRs that I'll use are from my and co-authors paper available here:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …
3 replies 16 retweets 99 likesShow this thread -
Taking the ages/population figures from the US census, and the midpoint of the age brackets as the mean IFR for that group, you get this breakdownpic.twitter.com/CZS0k0dXCB
3 replies 22 retweets 117 likesShow this thread -
Using our bog-standard Herd Immunity Threshold calculation, which requires 70% of people to become infected, we get just over 3 million deaths required to reach herd immunitypic.twitter.com/UgiZSL8SYO
10 replies 104 retweets 220 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @GidMK
The chart that yields 3 mil fatalities appears to assume 100% infection of the population, not 70%
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
That is incorrect, you just cannot see the formula in the cell. For example, 6,317,207*0.11274*0.7 = 498,542. If I had assumed 100% infection, the figure would be 712,201
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.