Since everyone's talking about herd immunity in the United States at the moment, I thought I'd quickly run some rough calculations of the number of deaths required to get to the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 in the U.S.
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I don't want to be macabre, but I think people underestimate the sheer economic cost of these deaths, when taking about the economic costs of the lockdown. You could add a column for the economic value of life loss. Using BotE of 13 years of life lost on average at $129,000/y
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one would get $2.1 trillion, i.e. more than 10% of the GDP. Of course the estimate varies according to the age-specific death rates .
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Now talk about damaged health, and receding immunity. Worst case: most Americans damaged for life.
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Annoying common cold viruses have been around forever, circulating freely. Is there herd immunity to those? This herd immunity thing isn't science. The threshold may be 10 %. It may not be. It's probably different in different places. No one knows.
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Imagine "X" thousand yrs ago, when a "cold virus" mutated, whole isolated communities died. Maybe a few survivors were immune & reproduced. Eventually "humans" became immune..... EVENTUALLY. 1000's of years later, "we" survive "colds" But, there is no more isolation.
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Reinfection is happening. Unless this is the warm up to judgement day, there has to be a reprieve of some sort because we weren’t fashioned to be isolated. This period in history is gonna suck.
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We’ve got a handful of reinfections out of tens of millions infections. We don’t know enough about this yet.
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On a related note, just because individual trickle back into the susceptible pool, that doesn’t mean herd immunity can’t be attained. You can actually factor this into your SIR models (which you, other epis, but apparently no one else seems to recognize).
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It’s far easier to control a pandemic, and stay at, say, a 40% recovered rate (with 1% trickleback per day) if you’re starting at 35% recovered. This will (presumably) allow for other methods of controlling this pandemic.
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Sweden chose herd immunity as a strategy. It wasn't a wise decision, instead it was a horrible example what happens when one person is handed over too much power.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/mishagajewski/2020/08/11/stop-trying-to-make-herd-immunity-happen-swedens-attempt-at-covid-19-herd-immunity-failed/amp/ …
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Not a medical nor scientific source but pretty accurate this time.
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